Vikebø Frode B, Nepstad Raymond, Matuszak Mateusz, Rikardsen Edel S U, Laurel Benjamin J, Meier Sonnich, Eriksen Elena, Röhrs Johannes, Christensen Kai H, Smieszek-Rice Malgorzata, Hoel Alf Håkon, Huserbråten Mats
Institute of Marine Research, PO Box 1870 Nordnes, 5817, Bergen, Norway.
SINTEF Ocean AS, Postboks 4762, NO-7465, Trondheim, Norway.
Aquat Toxicol. 2025 Apr;281:107293. doi: 10.1016/j.aquatox.2025.107293. Epub 2025 Feb 18.
Arctic amplification of climate change is causing sea ice to retreat at unprecedented rates, potentially opening up large vulnerable Arctic areas for oil and gas exploration and new shipping routes. This rapid warming marginalizes sympagic species habitats making them more sensitive to other anthropogenic pressures. Here, we assess potential impacts of hypothetic oil spills from the northernmost licensed oil field Wisting and additional neighbouring spill sites in areas currently not open to oil exploitation on the key ice-associated Arctic fish species polar cod (Boreogadus saida). We do this by developing and running combined data-driven models for the ocean, oil spill dispersal and fate, and the early life stages of polar cod. Sea ice and the Polar Front act as natural barriers limiting the exchange of polar cod eggs and larvae and oil spill between Atlantic and Polar Water. However, both barriers vary seasonally so that the sea ice retreats and the Polar Front weakens towards summer causing significant increases in oil exposure to early life stages of polar cod under varying oil spill scenarios investigated here. Previous literature emphasizes that fall feeding conditions must be sufficient for juvenile polar cod to allocate lipids and survive their first winter. Here, we show that less than half the exposed individuals experience these suitable feeding conditions in the fall. The seasonal exposure intensity suggests a need for petroleum regulations with temporal and spatial limitations varying through the year. However, even with these seasonal dynamic regulations in place, climate change induced by the use of fossil fuel will likely reduce these natural barriers through continued sea ice retreat and a weakening of the Polar Front thereby reducing their barrier effects. Risk assessments of anthropogenic impacts on key Arctic ecosystem components in the vicinity of the ice edge zone and the Polar Front will therefore have to be updated to account for these major changes.
北极地区气候变化的加速正在导致海冰以前所未有的速度消退，这有可能为石油和天然气勘探以及新的航线开辟大片脆弱的北极区域。这种快速变暖使与海冰相关的物种栖息地边缘化，使它们对其他人为压力更加敏感。在此，我们评估了假设的最北部许可油田维斯廷以及目前尚未开放进行石油开采的地区的其他邻近溢油点发生溢油对与冰相关的关键北极鱼类——极鳕（Boreogadus saida）的潜在影响。我们通过开发并运行海洋、溢油扩散与归宿以及极鳕早期生命阶段的联合数据驱动模型来实现这一目标。海冰和极锋作为天然屏障，限制了极鳕卵和幼体以及溢油在大西洋水和极地水之间的交换。然而，这两个屏障都会随季节变化，海冰在夏季会消退，极锋也会减弱，导致在此研究的不同溢油情景下，极鳕早期生命阶段所接触到的油污显著增加。以往文献强调秋季的摄食条件必须足以让幼年极鳕积累脂肪并度过第一个冬天。在此，我们表明，不到一半的受影响个体在秋季能经历这些适宜的摄食条件。季节性暴露强度表明需要制定随时间和空间变化的石油法规。然而，即使有这些季节性动态法规，化石燃料使用导致的气候变化仍可能通过海冰持续消退和极锋减弱来减少这些天然屏障，从而降低它们的屏障作用。因此，必须更新对冰缘区和极锋附近关键北极生态系统组成部分的人为影响风险评估，以考虑这些重大变化。
