Chen Anying, Liu Yixuan, Huang Yanlin, Su Guofeng, Yuan Dinghuan
School of Public Administration and Emergency Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
Public Policy Institute, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
Behav Sci (Basel). 2025 Feb 7;15(2):176. doi: 10.3390/bs15020176.
Disasters not only directly cause casualties and property losses but also significantly impact public opinion. In order to identify the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of public opinion during disasters, this paper put forward an analytical framework for analyzing public opinion, which clarified the relationships among key characteristics of public opinion and emphasized the role of official agencies in the processes of information releasing and information feedback. Guided by this framework, this paper collected the public opinion on Sina Weibo during the extraordinary "7.20" rainstorm in Henan Province, China. By analyzing the changes in the discussion regarding both the popularity of and the emotion displayed in Sina Weibo comments over time, it was found that the evolution of public opinion was closely related to disaster development. Novel informational content or innovative forms of information contribute to enhancing the discussion of popularity, while the events or emotions expressed within the information elicit corresponding emotional responses from the public. As popularity increased, the prevalence of negative emotions was observed to diminish concurrently with a rise in the proportion of neutral emotions. Based on these results, some suggestions on the management of public opinion during disasters were put forward.
灾害不仅直接造成人员伤亡和财产损失，还会对公众舆论产生重大影响。为了识别灾害期间公众舆论的演变特征及影响因素，本文提出了一个分析公众舆论的框架，该框架厘清了公众舆论关键特征之间的关系，并强调了官方机构在信息发布和信息反馈过程中的作用。在此框架的指导下，本文收集了中国河南省“7·20”特大暴雨期间新浪微博上的公众舆论。通过分析新浪微博评论中关于热度和情感表达随时间的变化，发现公众舆论的演变与灾害发展密切相关。新颖的信息内容或创新的信息形式有助于提高讨论热度，而信息中所表达的事件或情感会引发公众相应的情绪反应。随着热度的增加，负面情绪的占比逐渐减少，中性情绪的占比则随之上升。基于这些结果，本文提出了一些灾害期间公众舆论管理的建议。
