Usefulness of exercise stress testing for prediction of blood pressure trends.

The purpose of this study was to determine whether values of blood pressure during exercise help predict which adolescents are prone to maintain high blood pressure. Dynamic and isometric exercise stress tests were performed on 131 adolescents who had had systolic or diastolic pressures greater than the 95th percentile on three examinations the previous year. Follow-up blood pressures were measured 1 year after the stress testing, and outcomes were classified on the basis of the blood pressure status that year. Stepwise regression analysis was used to examine the association between earlier blood pressures and exercise pressures with outcome pressures. In both male and female adolescents, the average resting systolic pressure on the earlier survey was the best predictor of systolic pressure 2 years later. Blood pressures and heart rates during dynamic and isometric exercise did not significantly contribute to the models' prediction of future systolic or diastolic pressures. The data suggest that exercise stress testing is not a valid method for predicting youths whose blood pressures will remain elevated over the next 1 to 2 years.