Zhan Yinshui, Zhang Yichen, Zhang Jiquan, Xu Jinyuan, Chen Haoxin, Liu Gexu, Wan Ziyang
College of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun, 130021, China.
School of Environment, Institute of Natural Disaster Research, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Mar 1;15(1):7339. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-91109-6.
Urban land subsidence (LS) results in a reduction in ground elevation, compromising infrastructure integrity, disrupting the hydrological cycle, and posing significant risks to economic, demographic, and environmental security. This phenomenon is characterized by a certain degree of latency. In recent years, as Shanghai has undergone rapid urban expansion and high-density development, the issue of LS has become increasingly pronounced. This study employs a multi-criteria decision analysis framework, integrating advanced technologies such as Remote Sensing (RS), Google Earth Engine (GEE), and Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR), to develop a comprehensive evaluation index system comprising fifteen indicators, which consider geological, hydrological, and anthropogenic factors. By applying matrix theory, the study utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Entropy Weight Method (EWM) to integrate subjective and objective weights, thereby determining the comprehensive weight for each indicator. Subsequently, the comprehensive natural disaster risk theory was employed to assess the risk levels across different regions within the study area, which were visualized using ArcGIS. The study area was classified into five risk categories: very low, low, medium, high, and very high, comprising 67.00%, 17.87%, 9.25%, 3.39%, and 2.48% of the total area, respectively. The results closely align with historical cumulative subsidence data and the current LS prevention map of Shanghai, confirming the validity and efficacy of the selected indicators and evaluation methodologies. The findings suggest that the overall risk level in the study area is relatively low, with high-risk zones concentrated in densely populated and economically urbanized central districts.
城市地面沉降会导致地面高程降低,损害基础设施的完整性,扰乱水文循环,并对经济、人口和环境安全构成重大风险。这种现象具有一定程度的潜伏性。近年来,随着上海经历快速的城市扩张和高密度发展,地面沉降问题日益突出。本研究采用多标准决策分析框架,整合遥感(RS)、谷歌地球引擎(GEE)和小基线子集干涉合成孔径雷达(SBAS-InSAR)等先进技术,构建了一个包含十五个指标的综合评价指标体系,该体系考虑了地质、水文和人为因素。通过应用矩阵理论,本研究利用层次分析法(AHP)和熵权法(EWM)来整合主观和客观权重,从而确定每个指标的综合权重。随后,运用综合自然灾害风险理论对研究区域内不同地区的风险水平进行评估,并使用ArcGIS进行可视化。研究区域被划分为五个风险类别:极低、低、中、高和极高,分别占总面积的67.00%、17.87%、9.25%、3.39%和2.48%。研究结果与历史累计沉降数据和上海市当前的地面沉降防治地图密切吻合,证实了所选指标和评价方法的有效性。研究结果表明,研究区域的总体风险水平相对较低,高风险区域集中在人口密集和经济城市化程度高的中心城区。