Zhang Yichen, Wen Zhou, Zhang Jiquan, Huang Jintao, Qi Jiawei, Li Menghao
College of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun, 130012, China.
College of Surveying and Mapping Engineering, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun, 130021, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Aug 2;14(1):17876. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-68858-x.
Throughout the history of coal mining in all countries of the world, large areas of goaf have been left behind, and sudden collapses and surface subsidence of large areas of goaf may occur, especially for mining areas with long mining cycles. The northern new district of the Liaoyuan mining area has been subjected to nearly half a century of mining activities, accompanied by a gradual accumulation of disasters, which have occurred frequently in recent years. In order to assess the stability of the goaf in the study area, this paper proposes a hybrid decision-making multi-factor integrated evaluation method. The distribution of underground goafs was determined using geophysical exploration techniques (seismic survey and transient electromagnetic method) and geological drilling exploration. First, an evaluation index system was established based on the specifications of the goaf, the ecological and geological environment, and the mining conditions; the system included 14 indicators. Two weight calculation methods, AHP-EWM, were employed to determine the comprehensive weight of each indicator by combining subjective and objective weights on the basis of improved game theory. Subsequently, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was utilised to complete the stability rating of each block in the study area, and MapGIS and ArcGIS were employed to complete the drawing of the stability zoning map of the northern new district goaf. The study area was divided into three zones of stability, basic stability and instability, according to the critical value. These zones accounted for 23.03%, 36.45% and 40.52% of the total area of the study area, respectively. The comprehensive on-site investigation revealed a decrease in the size and number of collapse pits and the rate of damage to the houses from the unstable zone to the stable zone. This indicates that the results of the division are consistent with the actual situation. The classification results are consistent with the actual ground disaster situation, thus verifying the rationality and validity of the evaluation method. The results indicate that the stability of the study area is generally at the lower middle level.
在世界各国煤炭开采的历史中，都留下了大面积的采空区，大面积采空区可能会突然坍塌和地面沉降，特别是对于开采周期长的矿区。辽源矿区北部新区经历了近半个世纪的采矿活动，伴随着灾害的逐渐积累，近年来灾害频繁发生。为了评估研究区域内采空区的稳定性，本文提出了一种混合决策多因素综合评价方法。利用地球物理勘探技术（地震勘探和瞬变电磁法）和地质钻探勘探确定了地下采空区的分布。首先，根据采空区的规格、生态地质环境和开采条件建立了评价指标体系；该体系包括14个指标。采用层次分析法-熵权法两种权重计算方法，在改进博弈论的基础上，结合主观权重和客观权重确定各指标的综合权重。随后，利用模糊综合评价方法完成了研究区域内各区块的稳定性评级，并采用MapGIS和ArcGIS完成了北部新区采空区稳定性分区图的绘制。根据临界值，研究区域被划分为稳定、基本稳定和不稳定三个区域。这些区域分别占研究区域总面积的23.03%、36.45%和40.52%。综合现场调查发现，从不稳定区到稳定区，塌陷坑的大小和数量以及房屋受损率都有所下降。这表明划分结果与实际情况相符。分类结果与实际地面灾害情况一致，从而验证了评价方法的合理性和有效性。结果表明，研究区域的稳定性总体处于中下水平。
