Sepandi Mojtaba, Alimohamadi Yousef
Gastroenterology and Liver Disease Research Center, Clinical Sciences Institute, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Health Research Center, Life style Institute, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
J Prev Med Hyg. 2025 Jan 31;65(4):E515-E523. doi: 10.15167/2421-4248/jpmh2024.65.4.3230. eCollection 2024 Dec.
Colorectal cancer is the third most common malignancy and the second leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. This disease is the fourth most common malignancy in Iran. Since knowing the trend of this cancer is necessary for planning; this study aimed to compare the trend of colorectal cancer before and after implementing the Population-Based National Cancer Registry.
In this time series analysis using secondary data, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to predict the future trend. An Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression model was also used to compare the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer before and after the setting up of the Iranian National Population-Based Cancer Registry (INPCR).
Among Iranian men, an increasing trend in the incidence (from 16.8 in 2019 to 19.5 per 100,000 in 2027) and deaths of colorectal cancer for the coming years was predicted (from 10.2 in 2019 to 11.2 per 100,000 in 2027). A similar pattern was also observed for the incidence of this cancer among females (from 11 in 2019 to 12.3 per 100,000 in 2027), but a reverse pattern was predicted for the trend of deaths among women (from 2.06 in 2019 to 1.93 per 100,000 in 2027). During the years after the implementation of the INPCR, the trend of cases (β: 0.33, p < 0.001) as well as deaths due to colorectal cancer was significantly increasing (β: 0.08, p < 0.001) among the Iranian population.
Probably, part of the increase in the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer could be due to the improvement of the registration and reporting system of new cancer cases.
结直肠癌是全球第三大常见恶性肿瘤，也是癌症死亡的第二大主要原因。在伊朗，这种疾病是第四大常见恶性肿瘤。由于了解这种癌症的趋势对于规划至关重要；本研究旨在比较实施基于人群的国家癌症登记处前后结直肠癌的趋势。
在这项使用二手数据的时间序列分析中，自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）用于预测未来趋势。还使用了中断时间序列（ITS）回归模型来比较伊朗国家基于人群的癌症登记处（INPCR）建立前后结直肠癌的发病率和死亡率。
在伊朗男性中，预计未来几年结直肠癌的发病率（从2019年的每10万人16.8例增至2027年的每10万人19.5例）和死亡人数（从2019年的每10万人10.2例增至2027年的每10万人11.2例）呈上升趋势。在女性中也观察到了这种癌症发病率的类似模式（从2019年的每10万人11例增至2027年的每10万人12.3例），但预计女性死亡趋势呈相反模式（从2019年的每10万人2.06例降至2027年的每10万人1.93例）。在实施INPCR后的几年里，伊朗人群中结直肠癌病例（β：0.33，p < 0.001）以及死亡人数的趋势显著增加（β：0.08，p < 0.001）。
结直肠癌发病率和死亡率上升的部分原因可能是新癌症病例登记和报告系统的改善。
