A computational dynamic systems model for prediction of neural tube closure defects.

Neural tube closure is a critical morphogenetic event during early vertebrate development. This complex process is susceptible to perturbation by genetic errors and chemical disruption, which can induce severe neural tube defects (NTDs) such as spina bifida. We built a computational agent-based model (ABM) of neural tube development based on the known biology of morphogenetic signals and cellular biomechanics underlying neural fold elevation, bending and fusion. The computer model functionalizes cell signals and responses to render a dynamic representation of neural tube closure. Perturbations in the control network can then be introduced synthetically or from biological data to yield quantitative simulation and probabilistic prediction of NTDs by incidence and degree of defect. Translational applications of the model include mechanistic understanding of how singular or combinatorial alterations in gene-environmental interactions and animal-free assessment of developmental toxicity for an important human birth defect (spina bifida) and potentially other neurological problems linked to development of the brain and spinal cord.