He Xiaxia, Zheng Wenjie, Wang Xin, Jiang Yongpo, Zhu Weimin
Department of Radiology, Taizhou Central Hospital (Taizhou University Hospital), Taizhou University, Taizhou, China.
Department of Emergency Medicine, Taizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Taizhou, China.
HIV Med. 2025 May;26(5):773-784. doi: 10.1111/hiv.70009. Epub 2025 Mar 4.
Understanding the burden of HIV/AIDS in China over the last few decades is vital for creating effective control strategies.
This study systematically retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021, including information related to HIV/AIDS in China. It assessed the burden of HIV/AIDS using specific indicators and methods, such as incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Joinpoint regression models were used to analyse the trends in disease burden, and age-period-cohort models were used to evaluate the effects of age, period and cohort.
From 1990 to 2021, the incidence, mortality and DALYs of HIV/AIDS in China increased for the total population, as well as for males and females. The age-standardized incidence, mortality and DALY rates rose at average annual rates of 0.051, 0.056 and 2.629, respectively. Age-period-cohort model analysis showed that net drift values for incidence, mortality and DALY rates across all age groups were greater than 0 (p < 0.05), with local drifts peaking between the ages of 20 and 24. The risk of HIV/AIDS increased with age. Compared with the 2005-2009 reference period, overall, male and female incidence risks first increased and then decreased, while mortality and DALY risks continued to rise. Additionally, the risks for the 1945-1949 birth cohort also showed an increasing trend.
In conclusion, the overall HIV/AIDS burden in China grew from 1990 to 2021. To combat this, future efforts should focus on educating and preventing transmission among adolescents and the elderly.
了解过去几十年中国艾滋病毒/艾滋病的负担对于制定有效的控制策略至关重要。
本研究系统地检索了《2021年全球疾病负担研究》中的数据，包括与中国艾滋病毒/艾滋病相关的信息。它使用特定指标和方法评估艾滋病毒/艾滋病的负担，如发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。采用Joinpoint回归模型分析疾病负担趋势，采用年龄-时期-队列模型评估年龄、时期和队列的影响。
1990年至2021年，中国艾滋病毒/艾滋病的发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年在总人口以及男性和女性中均有所增加。年龄标准化发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年率分别以年均0.051、0.056和2.629的速度上升。年龄-时期-队列模型分析表明，所有年龄组的发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年率的净漂移值均大于0（p<0.05），局部漂移在20至24岁之间达到峰值。艾滋病毒/艾滋病风险随年龄增长而增加。与2005-2009年参考期相比，总体而言，男性和女性的发病风险先上升后下降，而死亡和伤残调整生命年风险持续上升。此外，1945-1949年出生队列的风险也呈上升趋势。
总之，1990年至2021年中国艾滋病毒/艾滋病的总体负担有所增加。为应对这一情况，未来的工作应侧重于对青少年和老年人进行教育及预防传播。
