Motto J A, Heilbron D C, Juster R P
Am J Psychiatry. 1985 Jun;142(6):680-6. doi: 10.1176/ajp.142.6.680.
This report details the development of an empirical suicide risk scale for adults hospitalized due to a depressive or suicidal state. The authors studied 2,753 such subjects prospectively regarding 101 psychosocial variables. In a 2-year follow-up, 136 (4.94%) of the subjects had committed suicide. Rigorous statistical analysis, including a validation procedure, identified 15 variables as significant predictors of suicidal outcome. These were translated into a paper-and-pencil scale that gives an estimated risk of suicide within 2 years. Such an instrument can provide a valuable supplement to clinical judgment and a quantitative expression of suicide risk.
本报告详细介绍了一种针对因抑郁或自杀状态而住院的成年人的实证自杀风险量表的开发情况。作者前瞻性地研究了2753名此类受试者的101个社会心理变量。在为期2年的随访中，136名（4.94%）受试者自杀。包括验证程序在内的严格统计分析确定了15个变量为自杀结果的显著预测因素。这些变量被转化为一种纸笔量表，可给出2年内的自杀风险估计值。这样一种工具可为临床判断提供有价值的补充，并对自杀风险进行量化表达。
