Varieur Benjamin M, White Ryan C, Bono Christopher M
From the Loyola University Chicago Stritch School of Medicine, Maywood, IL (Varieur and White), and the Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (Varieur and Bono).
J Am Acad Orthop Surg. 2025 May 15;33(10):548-553. doi: 10.5435/JAAOS-D-24-01106. Epub 2025 Mar 4.
Orthopaedics has consistently been among the most competitive residency specialties in which to match. The purpose of this study was to evaluate trends in important data as provided by the National Resident Matching Program regarding orthopaedic surgery residency and to project future averages for successful applicants.
"Charting Outcomes in the Match" are biennial reports published by the National Resident Matching Program, listing applicant characteristics stratified by specialty. We collected data between 2014 and 2024 for allopathic medical school seniors from the United States that successfully matched into orthopaedic surgery residency. Regression analysis was performed to predict research productivity and United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 2 scores to the year 2040.
Research productivity and Step 2 score have shown notable trends among matched orthopaedic surgery residency applicants, with research productivity following an exponential increase ( R2 = 0.988, P < 0.001) and Step 2 scores following a linear trend ( R2 = 0.925, P = 0.002). In accordance with these models, by the year 2040, matched applicants are projected to have an average of 165.6 (95% prediction interval, 107.8 to 254.5) publications, posters, abstracts, and presentations and an average Step 2 score of 266 (95% prediction interval, 261 to 271) points, outperforming the 87th percentile. Specifically, Step 2 score is projected to increase by 1.1 point every 2 years with the limitation that the upper limit score is 300.
Research productivity and USMLE Step 2 scores among matched orthopaedic surgery residency applicants are projected to increase in the coming years. These findings can inform medical school administration, residency programs, and orthopaedic leadership to optimize their programs for student, resident, and organizational success. Moreover, it may be time to reconsider the importance of these metrics as a perpetual increase in scores and research activity is not sustainable nor equitable.
骨科一直是竞争最为激烈的住院医师专科之一。本研究的目的是评估国家住院医师匹配计划提供的有关骨科住院医师培训的重要数据趋势，并预测成功申请者未来的平均水平。
《匹配结果图表》是国家住院医师匹配计划每两年发布一次的报告，列出了按专科分层的申请者特征。我们收集了2014年至2024年期间美国成功匹配骨科住院医师培训的全科医学高年级学生的数据。进行回归分析以预测到2040年的研究产出率和美国医师执照考试第二步的分数。
在匹配的骨科住院医师培训申请者中，研究产出率和第二步分数呈现出显著趋势，研究产出率呈指数增长（R2 = 0.988，P < 0.001），第二步分数呈线性趋势（R2 = 0.925，P = 0.002）。根据这些模型，到2040年，匹配的申请者预计平均有165.6篇（95%预测区间为107.8至254.5篇）出版物、海报、摘要和报告，第二步平均分数为266分（95%预测区间为261至271分），超过第87百分位。具体而言，第二步分数预计每两年增加1.1分，上限分数为300分。
预计未来几年，匹配的骨科住院医师培训申请者的研究产出率和美国医师执照考试第二步分数将会提高。这些发现可为医学院管理部门、住院医师培训项目和骨科领导层提供参考，以优化其项目，实现学生、住院医师和机构的成功。此外，鉴于分数和研究活动的持续增加既不可持续也不公平，或许是时候重新审视这些指标的重要性了。
