CA-VAR-Markov model of user needs prediction based on user generated content.

In the contemporary, fiercely competitive marketplace, companies must adeptly navigate the complexities of understanding and fulfilling user needs to succeed. By mining potential user needs from User Generated Content (UGC) on social media platforms, businesses can design products that resonate with users' needs, thereby swiftly capturing market share. When predicting user needs in this paper, the collected UGC is first processed through operations such as deduplication, word segmentation, and stop-word removal. Subsequently, Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is employed to extract product attribute features from UGC, cluster them to identify user needs and classify documents accordingly. The Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model is then utilized for word vector feature extraction of the categorized documents, while also taking into account user interaction metrics to perform sentiment analysis of user needs using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Finally, a Correlation Analysis-Vector Autoregressive-Markov (CA-VAR-Markov) model is constructed to forecast the evolution of user needs, and the Analytical Kano (A-Kano) model is applied for an in-depth analysis to propose strategies for product design optimization. In the case study, this paper takes the UGC from "Autohome" as an example to predict the user needs for the NIO EC6. Compared with LSTM and ARIMA, the prediction results are more accurate. Based on the prediction results and combined with the A-KANO model, suggestions are put forward for the optimization of the NIO EC6. The final results prove that the methods for identifying and predicting user needs proposed in this paper can effectively predict the development trend of user needs, providing a reference for enterprises to optimize their products.