Hakem Adnane, El Khiat Abdelaati, Ezzahidi Abdelkacem, Bouhout Souad, Ait Ali Driss, El Houate Brahim, Boutaayamou Idriss
Lab-SIV, Polydisciplinary Faculty of Ouarzazate, Ibn Zohr University, Ouarzazate, 45000, B.P. 638, Morocco.
Biological and health sciences team, Higher Institute of Nursing Professions and Health Techniques, Ministry of Health, B.P. 45000, Ouarzazate, Morocco; Laboratory of Clinical and Experimental Neurosciences and Environment, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Cadi Ayyad University, 40000, Marrakech, Morocco.
Acta Trop. 2025 Apr;264:107579. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2025.107579. Epub 2025 Mar 7.
Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected vector-borne disease that poses a serious health problem in many countries including Morocco. The present study aimed to determine the incidence and trend of CL from 2018 to 2022 and its forecast for 2024 -2026 in an endemic region of Morocco. The study also examined the association of various environmental, demographic, and socioeconomic factors with CL cases using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was applied to predict the number of new CL cases based on time-series data of monthly CL cases from January 2010 to December 2023. Over the 5-year study period, 2,713 cases of CL were reported, with an accumulated incidence rate of 859.44 cases per 100.000 inhabitants. The overall incidence rate decreased from 254.45 per 100,000 individuals in 2018 to 63.19 per 100,000 in 2022 with an average annual decrease rate of 23.77 %. Interestingly, the disease was slightly more common in females and the age group of 0-5 years was the most affected. In this study, single lesions were more prominent (65 %) and frequently affected facial parts (34 %). In addition, the seasonal variation showed a peak incidence in winter. The OLS analysis revealed a significant correlation between vulnerability rate, population density, altitude, urbanization, and the number of cases. The results showed a decreasing trend in the forecasted numbers of CL cases with approximately 59 cases per year. These findings can be used by relevant authorities to develop effective interventions for the prevention and control of CL.
皮肤利什曼病（CL）是一种被忽视的媒介传播疾病，在包括摩洛哥在内的许多国家都构成严重的健康问题。本研究旨在确定摩洛哥一个流行地区2018年至2022年CL的发病率和趋势以及对2024 - 2026年的预测。该研究还使用普通最小二乘法（OLS）回归分析了各种环境、人口和社会经济因素与CL病例之间的关联。应用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型，根据2010年1月至2023年12月CL病例的月度时间序列数据预测新CL病例数。在为期5年的研究期间，共报告了2713例CL病例，累积发病率为每10万居民859.44例。总体发病率从2018年的每10万人254.45例降至2022年的每10万人63.19例，年均下降率为23.77%。有趣的是，该疾病在女性中略为常见，0至5岁年龄组受影响最大。在本研究中，单个皮损更为突出（65%），且面部受累频繁（34%）。此外，季节性变化显示冬季发病率最高。OLS分析显示易感性率、人口密度、海拔、城市化与病例数之间存在显著相关性。结果显示，预测的CL病例数呈下降趋势，每年约59例。这些研究结果可供相关当局用于制定预防和控制CL的有效干预措施。
