Ramsey David S L, Anderson Dean P, Gormley Andrew M
Arthur Rylah Institute, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Heidelberg, VIC, Australia.
Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research, Lincoln, New Zealand.
Camb Prism Extinct. 2023 Jan 11;1:e4. doi: 10.1017/ext.2023.1. eCollection 2023.
Deciding whether or not eradication of an invasive species has been successful is one of the main dilemmas facing managers of eradication programmes. When the species is no longer being detected, a decision must be made about when to stop the eradication programme and declare success. In practice, this decision is usually based on ad hoc rules, which may be inefficient. Since surveillance undertaken to confirm species absence is imperfect, any declaration of eradication success must consider the risk and the consequences of being wrong. If surveillance is insufficient, then eradication may be falsely declared (a Type I error), whereas continuation of surveillance when eradication has already occurred wastes resources (a Type II error). We review the various methods that have been developed for quantifying these errors and incorporating them into the decision-making process. We conclude with an overview of future developments likely to improve the practice of determining invasive species eradication success.
判定入侵物种的根除是否成功是根除计划管理者面临的主要难题之一。当不再检测到该物种时，必须决定何时停止根除计划并宣布成功。实际上，这一决定通常基于临时规则，而这些规则可能效率低下。由于用于确认物种不存在的监测并不完美，任何关于根除成功的声明都必须考虑出错的风险和后果。如果监测不足，那么可能会错误地宣布根除成功（I型错误），而在已经实现根除后继续监测则会浪费资源（II型错误）。我们回顾了为量化这些错误并将其纳入决策过程而开发的各种方法。最后，我们概述了未来可能改善判定入侵物种根除成功实践的发展方向。
