A loss of stomata exposes a critical vulnerability to variable atmospheric humidity in ferns.

Stomata confer both benefits and costs to plants, but assessing the magnitude of these effects is challenging. Some ferns have entirely lost stomata on their leaves, providing an opportunity to understand functional limitations associated with the inability to regulate transpiration. Here, we show that the loss of stomata and a massive reduction in xylem tissue investment in a filmy fern (Hymenophyllum flabellatum Labill.) leaves its vascular system exposed to catastrophic failure during relatively small reductions in atmospheric humidity. Hydraulic limitation, together with a sensitivity to fast desiccation, sets a clear lethal vapor pressure deficit threshold. This threshold enables a quantitative prediction of range contraction in H. flabellatum using a simple physical model. According to this threshold and climate projections, H. flabellatum may disappear from most of its native habitat in mainland Australia by 2050.