Mažuranić Anton, Bubalo Pero, Baković Marija
Institute of Forensic Medicine and Criminalistics, School of Medicine, University of Zagreb, Šalata 11, Zagreb, Croatia.
J Forensic Leg Med. 2025 Apr;111:102852. doi: 10.1016/j.jflm.2025.102852. Epub 2025 Mar 15.
The primary aim of this study was to determine if the humerus, the radius, and the ulna exhibit sexual dimorphism in the contemporary Croatian population, while secondary aims were to establish population-specific univariate standards and discriminant equations for the upper limb bones with known and new osteometric anatomical parameters.
The study was conducted on the skeletal remains of the victims of the Homeland War (1991-1995). Sexual dimorphism was analyzed using standard descriptive statistics. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to determine the cut-off points for the highest accuracy in sex estimation. Standard and stepwise discriminant function analysis was performed, and discriminant function equations were established.
All measured anatomical parameters significantly differed between males and females (P < 0.001). Univariate sex estimation accuracy using ROC was as high as 93.2 %, while multivariate sex estimation using discriminant function equations demonstrated accuracy ranging from 83.8 % to 91.2 %.
This study used new osteometric anatomical parameters to establish population-specific (Croatian population) univariate and multivariate sex estimation standards and equations. Established univariate standards can be used for sex estimation when the fragmentary upper limb is discovered in a forensic context, while the established discriminant function equations can be used as the sole method or in combination with other sex estimation methods when complete upper limb bones are recovered.
本研究的主要目的是确定在当代克罗地亚人群中,肱骨、桡骨和尺骨是否存在性别差异,次要目的是为具有已知和新的骨测量解剖参数的上肢骨骼建立特定人群的单变量标准和判别方程。
本研究针对祖国战争(1991 - 1995年)受害者的骨骼遗骸进行。使用标准描述性统计分析性别差异。采用受试者工作特征曲线分析来确定性别估计中最高准确性的临界点。进行了标准判别函数分析和逐步判别函数分析,并建立了判别函数方程。
所有测量的解剖参数在男性和女性之间均存在显著差异(P < 0.001)。使用ROC进行单变量性别估计的准确率高达93.2%,而使用判别函数方程进行多变量性别估计的准确率在83.8%至91.2%之间。
本研究使用新的骨测量解剖参数建立了特定人群(克罗地亚人群)的单变量和多变量性别估计标准及方程。当在法医背景下发现上肢碎片时,所建立的单变量标准可用于性别估计,而当完整的上肢骨骼被找回时,所建立的判别函数方程可作为唯一方法或与其他性别估计方法结合使用。