Wen Shubo, Chen Man, Kong Qianqian, Huang Ao, Wang Ziwei, Xu Qiannan, Liu Xiling
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Forensic Medicine, Shanghai Forensic Service Platform, Ministry of Justice, Academy of Forensic Science, Shanghai, 200063, China.
Int J Legal Med. 2025 Mar 22. doi: 10.1007/s00414-025-03473-7.
There is a growing demand for complex kinship identification due to the increasing complexity of social structures. However, the system efficiency of complex kinship identification systems, particularly for identifying second-degree and higher kinship relationships, needs improvement. This study aimed to further explore the selection of introduced relatives and genetic markers for second- and third-degree kinship identification by comparing the statistical parameters, such as likelihood ratio (LR), effectiveness, and error rate, of four different detection systems (19 STRs, 39 STRs, 55 STRs, and 55 STRs + 94 SNPs) in 109 common kinship identification scenarios. The study found that increasing the number of genetic markers or introducing more reference individuals generally enhanced the system efficiency for identifying complex genetic relationships by introducing various reference individuals into three-generation family lines to identify second- and third-degree kinships. The results were validated using true pedigree samples. Ranking the system efficiencies of kinship identification systems with different combinations of reference individuals and genetic markers provided insight into reference selection priorities and the optimal number of loci required. For second-degree relatives, adding one relative to the 39 STR marker set resulted in an effectiveness of over 90% with an error rate of less than 0.0005, while adding two known relatives achieved an effectiveness of over 95% with an error rate of less than 0.0001. Certain models could completely discriminate between related and unrelated individuals when using 55 STRs. For third-degree relatives, incorporating two known relatives in the 55 STR marker set resulted in an effectiveness of over 90% with an error rate of less than 0.0001 in most scenarios. In addition, when using both 55 STRs and 94 SNPs, a total of five models used for first-cousin relationships, that incorporated two reference individuals within second-degree relatives of both subjects, could completely distinguish between related and unrelated individuals. This study not only offers theoretical insights for complex kinship identification but also provides a valuable reference that can significantly improve the practice of identifying second- and third-degree kinships.
由于社会结构日益复杂,对复杂亲属关系鉴定的需求不断增加。然而,复杂亲属关系鉴定系统的系统效率,尤其是用于鉴定二级及以上亲属关系时,仍有待提高。本研究旨在通过比较四种不同检测系统(19个短串联重复序列(STR)、39个STR、55个STR以及55个STR + 94个单核苷酸多态性(SNP))在109种常见亲属关系鉴定场景中的统计参数,如似然比(LR)、有效性和错误率,进一步探索用于二级和三级亲属关系鉴定的引入亲属和遗传标记的选择。研究发现,增加遗传标记数量或引入更多参考个体通常会提高鉴定复杂遗传关系的系统效率,即通过将各种参考个体引入三代家系来鉴定二级和三级亲属关系。研究结果通过真实系谱样本进行了验证。对具有不同参考个体和遗传标记组合的亲属关系鉴定系统的系统效率进行排名,为参考选择优先级和所需的最佳基因座数量提供了见解。对于二级亲属,在39个STR标记集上增加一个亲属,有效性超过90%,错误率低于0.0005,而增加两个已知亲属则有效性超过95%,错误率低于0.0001。使用55个STR时,某些模型可以完全区分相关个体和无关个体。对于三级亲属,在55个STR标记集中纳入两个已知亲属,在大多数情况下有效性超过90%,错误率低于0.0001。此外,当同时使用55个STR和94个SNP时,共有五个用于表亲关系的模型,在两个个体的二级亲属中纳入了两个参考个体,可以完全区分相关个体和无关个体。本研究不仅为复杂亲属关系鉴定提供了理论见解,还提供了有价值的参考,可显著改善二级和三级亲属关系鉴定的实践。