运用随机模型评估印度牛结节性皮肤病的经济负担。
Assessment of economic burden of lumpy skin disease in India using stochastic modeling.
作者信息
Naidu Govindaraj Gurrappa, Shivappa Ramanji Rampura, Rajanna Puneeth Raja, Gondali Huchappa, Devaraju Manoj Hesaraghatta, Nagesh Prem Kishor Singasandra, Gajendiran Narayanan, Kanani Amit, Bhatt Lenin, Tapase Jayant, Arumugam Sundaresan, Biswal Jyoti Ranjan, Shivamurthy Sathish Gowda Chirathahalli, Manjunathareddy Gundallhalli Bayyappa, Bora Durlav Prasad, Chhetri Bijoy, Revanaiah Yogisharadhya, Pujar Sagar Shyam, Gulati Baldev Raj
机构信息
ICAR-National Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and Disease Informatics, Bengaluru, India.
Office of Deputy Director of Animal Husbandry, Foot and Mouth Disease Typing Scheme, Polytechnic Campus, Ambawadi, Ahmedabad, India.
出版信息
Sci Rep. 2025 Mar 24;15(1):10160. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-94383-6.
This study assessed the farm-level economic loss due to LSD in India and at disaggregate (state) level by collecting data from 2351 cattle farms covering seven states. Data were analyed using descriptive statistics and stochastic modeling with Monte Carlo simulations. Gujarat state reported the highest milk loss, with a median reduction of 74, 90, 60, 45, 15, 15, and 8 L per animal in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Assam, and Odisha, respectively. Crossbred cattle experienced more milk loss per animal, ranging from USD 0.0 to 237.8. The median mortality loss per animal varied between USD 12.2 and 1,084. The substantial national loss was due to decreased milk production, followed by the loss of draught power, treatment cost, and vector management cost. Stochastic modelling estimated economic loss due to LSD in cattle in India was USD 2440.29 million (90% CI 2162.55-2716.15) / (INR 202,544.07 million (90% 179,491.65-2,225,440.45) during 2022 & 2023 with a highest loss of USD 314.18 million (90% CI 279.10-349.34)) in Rajasthan state.
本研究通过收集覆盖七个邦的2351个养牛场的数据，评估了印度农场层面及各邦层面因裂谷热造成的经济损失。使用描述性统计和蒙特卡洛模拟的随机模型对数据进行了分析。古吉拉特邦报告的牛奶损失最高，拉贾斯坦邦、古吉拉特邦、泰米尔纳德邦、卡纳塔克邦、中央邦、阿萨姆邦和奥里萨邦每头牲畜的牛奶损失中位数分别为74升、90升、60升、45升、15升、15升和8升。杂交牛每头的牛奶损失更多，范围在0.0美元至237.8美元之间。每头牲畜的死亡损失中位数在12.2美元至1084美元之间。全国范围内的巨大损失是由于牛奶产量下降，其次是役力损失、治疗成本和病媒管理成本。随机模型估计，2022年和2023年期间，印度牛因裂谷热造成的经济损失为2.44029亿美元（90%置信区间为2.16255亿 - 2.71615亿美元）/（2025.4407亿印度卢比（90%置信区间为1794.9165亿 - 2225.44045亿印度卢比）），拉贾斯坦邦的损失最高，为3.1418亿美元（90%置信区间为2.7910亿 - 3.4934亿美元）。
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