Geitenbeek Ritch T J, Baltus Simon C, Broekman Mark, Barendsen Sander N, Frieben Maike C, Asaggau Ilias, Thibeau-Sutre Elina, Wolterink Jelmer M, Vermeulen Matthijs C, Tan Can O, Broeders Ivo A M J, Consten Esther C J
Department of Surgery, Groningen University Medical Center, University of Groningen, 9713 GZ Groningen, The Netherlands.
Department of Surgery, Meander Medical Center, 3813 TZ Amersfoort, The Netherlands.
Cancers (Basel). 2025 Mar 20;17(6):1051. doi: 10.3390/cancers17061051.
: Anastomotic leakage (AL) remains a major complication after restorative rectal cancer surgery, with accurate preoperative risk stratification posing a significant challenge. Pelvic measurements derived from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) have been proposed as potential predictors of AL, but their clinical utility remains uncertain. : This retrospective, multicenter cohort study analyzed rectal cancer patients undergoing restorative surgery between 2013 and 2021. Pelvic dimensions were assessed using MRI-based pelvimetry. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses identified independent risk factors for AL. Subsequently, machine Learning (ML) models-logistic regression, random forest classifier, and XGBoost-were developed to predict AL using preoperative clinical data alone and in combination with pelvimetry. Model performance was evaluated using F1 scores, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC-AUC) and precision-recall curves (AUC-PR) as primary metrics. : Among 487 patients, the overall AL rate was 14%. Multivariate regression analysis identified distance to the anorectal junction, pelvic inlet width, and interspinous distance as independent risk factors for AL ( < 0.05). The logistic regression model incorporating pelvimetry achieved the highest predictive performance, with a mean ROC-AUC of 0.70 ± 0.09 and AUC-PR of 0.32 ± 0.10. Although predictive models that included pelvic measurements demonstrated higher ROC-AUCs compared to those without pelvimetry, the improvement was not statistically significant. : Pelvic dimensions, specifically pelvic inlet and interspinous distance, were independently associated with an increased risk of AL. While ML models incorporating pelvimetry showed only moderate predictive performance, these measurements should be considered in developing clinical prediction tools for AL to enhance preoperative risk stratification.
吻合口漏(AL)仍然是直肠癌根治性手术后的主要并发症,准确的术前风险分层面临重大挑战。源自磁共振成像(MRI)的骨盆测量已被提出作为AL的潜在预测指标,但其临床实用性仍不确定。
这项回顾性多中心队列研究分析了2013年至2021年间接受根治性手术的直肠癌患者。使用基于MRI的骨盆测量法评估骨盆尺寸。单因素和多因素回归分析确定了AL的独立危险因素。随后,开发了机器学习(ML)模型——逻辑回归、随机森林分类器和XGBoost——仅使用术前临床数据以及结合骨盆测量法来预测AL。使用F1分数评估模型性能,将受试者操作特征曲线下面积(ROC-AUC)和精确召回率曲线下面积(AUC-PR)作为主要指标。
在487例患者中,总体AL发生率为14%。多因素回归分析确定距肛门直肠交界处的距离、骨盆入口宽度和棘间距离为AL的独立危险因素(<0.05)。纳入骨盆测量法的逻辑回归模型具有最高的预测性能,平均ROC-AUC为0.70±0.09,AUC-PR为0.32±0.10。尽管包含骨盆测量的预测模型与未使用骨盆测量法的模型相比显示出更高的ROC-AUC,但改善在统计学上并不显著。
骨盆尺寸,特别是骨盆入口和棘间距离,与AL风险增加独立相关。虽然纳入骨盆测量法的ML模型仅显示出中等的预测性能,但在开发AL的临床预测工具时应考虑这些测量值,以加强术前风险分层。