Su Shangke, Liu Jinquan, Chen Bin, Wang Wei, Xiao Jiaguang, Li Yuan, Du Jianguo, Kang Jianhua, Hu Wenjia, Zhang Junpeng
Key Laboratory of Marine Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, China.
Laboratory of Marine Biodiversity Research, Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, China.
Animals (Basel). 2025 Mar 17;15(6):858. doi: 10.3390/ani15060858.
Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish () outbreaks pose a significant threat to coral reef ecosystems, with climate change potentially exacerbating their distribution and impact. However, there remains only a small number of predictive studies on how climate change drives changes in the distribution patterns of , and relevant assessments of the impact of these changes on coral reef areas are lacking. To address this issue, this study investigated potential changes in the distribution of under climate change and its impact on coral habitats. Using a novel two-step framework, we integrated both abiotic and biological ( distribution) predictors into species distribution modeling to project future shifts in habitats. We created the first reliable set of current and future global distribution maps for using a comprehensive dataset and machine learning approach. The results showed significant distribution shifts under three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), with expanded ranges under all scenarios, and the greatest expansion occurring near 10° S. Asymmetry in the latitudinal shifts in habitat boundaries suggests that the Southern Hemisphere may face a more severe expansion of . Regions previously unsuitable for , such as parts of New Zealand, might experience new invasions. Additionally, our findings highlight the potential increase in predatory pressure on coral reefs under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, particularly in the Western Coral Triangle and Northeast Australian Shelf, where an overlap between and habitats is significant. This study provides critical insights into the ecological dynamics of in the context of climate change, and the results have important implications for coral reef management. These findings highlight the need for targeted conservation efforts and the development of mitigation strategies to protect coral reefs from the growing threat posed by .
太平洋棘冠海星（）的爆发对珊瑚礁生态系统构成了重大威胁，气候变化可能会加剧其分布范围和影响。然而，关于气候变化如何驱动太平洋棘冠海星分布模式变化的预测研究仍然很少，并且缺乏对这些变化对珊瑚礁区域影响的相关评估。为了解决这个问题，本研究调查了气候变化下太平洋棘冠海星分布的潜在变化及其对珊瑚栖息地的影响。我们使用了一个新颖的两步框架，将非生物和生物（太平洋棘冠海星分布）预测因子整合到物种分布模型中，以预测未来太平洋棘冠海星栖息地的变化。我们使用综合数据集和机器学习方法，创建了第一套可靠的当前和未来全球太平洋棘冠海星分布图。结果表明，在三种气候变化情景（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5）下，太平洋棘冠海星的分布发生了显著变化，在所有情景下其分布范围都有所扩大，最大的扩张发生在南纬10°附近。栖息地边界纬度变化的不对称表明，南半球可能面临太平洋棘冠海星更严重的扩张。以前不适合太平洋棘冠海星生存的地区，如新西兰的部分地区，可能会遭遇新的入侵。此外，我们的研究结果突出了在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下，珊瑚礁上捕食压力可能增加，特别是在西珊瑚三角区和澳大利亚东北大陆架，那里太平洋棘冠海星和珊瑚栖息地的重叠非常显著。本研究为气候变化背景下太平洋棘冠海星的生态动态提供了重要见解，研究结果对珊瑚礁管理具有重要意义。这些发现凸显了开展有针对性的保护工作以及制定缓解策略的必要性，以保护珊瑚礁免受太平洋棘冠海星日益增长的威胁。
