Gao Huayao, Li Yumei, Zhang Chao, Wang Haoyang, Nie Yonggang
Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Conserv Biol. 2025 Aug;39(4):e70021. doi: 10.1111/cobi.70021. Epub 2025 Mar 28.
Pathogenic viruses are globally distributed and have caused severe diseases or death in wildlife populations, posing enormous threats to wild animals, especially threatened species. The transmission dynamics of pathogenic viral diseases are affected by complex factors and their interactions, such as climate, virus traits, host life-history traits, and environmental conditions. The seroprevalence of viruses can reflect the historical exposure of hosts to viruses and may indicate accumulated pathogenic viral disease severity in wildlife populations. We studied viruses with demonstrated virulence that have caused diseases or death in their natural hosts among wild terrestrial mammals. We extracted data on virus traits, host species, host life-history traits, and climate conditions from the peer-reviewed literature to explore their effects on and interactions with virus seroprevalence in wildlife populations. Ungulates were the most studied group followed by carnivores. The seroprevalence of pathogenic viruses was positively correlated with temperature in wildlife populations. The correlation between precipitation and virus seroprevalence was complicated and depended on different interactions of variables. Gregarious animals and nonmigratory ungulates were more vulnerable to high viral seroprevalence than other species. As global temperatures increase, drought will increase, and gregarious and nonmigratory ungulates may thus experience increased spread and incidence of pathogenic viruses, especially vector-borne viruses. Gregarious carnivores may face a high risk of outbreaks of viruses that are transmitted directly (e.g., canine distemper virus, canine parvovirus, and rabies virus). Our results can be used to inform protocols for surveillance of specific viruses and susceptible host life-history traits to prevent epizootics in natural populations, which will be crucial for the conservation of terrestrial mammals under global climate change.
致病性病毒在全球范围内广泛分布，已在野生动物种群中引发严重疾病或导致死亡，对野生动物尤其是濒危物种构成巨大威胁。致病性病毒疾病的传播动态受气候、病毒特性、宿主生活史特征和环境条件等复杂因素及其相互作用的影响。病毒的血清阳性率可以反映宿主过去接触病毒的情况，可能表明野生动物种群中致病性病毒疾病的累积严重程度。我们研究了在野生陆生哺乳动物自然宿主中已证实具有致病性并导致疾病或死亡的病毒。我们从同行评议的文献中提取了关于病毒特性、宿主物种、宿主生活史特征和气候条件的数据，以探讨它们对野生动物种群中病毒血清阳性率的影响及其相互作用。有蹄类动物是研究最多的群体，其次是食肉动物。野生动物种群中致病性病毒的血清阳性率与温度呈正相关。降水与病毒血清阳性率之间的相关性较为复杂，取决于变量的不同相互作用。群居动物和非迁徙性有蹄类动物比其他物种更容易受到高病毒血清阳性率的影响。随着全球气温升高，干旱将会增加，群居和非迁徙性有蹄类动物可能因此会经历致病性病毒，尤其是媒介传播病毒的传播增加和发病率上升。群居食肉动物可能面临直接传播的病毒（如犬瘟热病毒、犬细小病毒和狂犬病病毒）爆发的高风险。我们的研究结果可用于为特定病毒监测方案和易感宿主生活史特征提供信息，以预防自然种群中的动物流行病，这对于全球气候变化下陆生哺乳动物的保护至关重要。
