Clarke J R
Arch Surg. 1985 Jul;120(7):844-7. doi: 10.1001/archsurg.1985.01390310080018.
Second opinions and decision analysis, a mathematical process the decision maker can use to represent and solve problems, were compared in hypothetical surgical situations. Fifty expert surgeons gave opinions and provided the information necessary to solve the problems by decision analyses. Each surgeon's opinion was randomly selected again as a second opinion. In six difficult cases, 59% of the individual opinions were correct when compared with previously determined answers. For two surgical second-opinion protocols, the accuracies were 54% and 60%. The accuracy of the decision analyses was 69%. Improvement from second-opinion protocols can be predicted mathematically and is limited. Improvement from decision analysis is not limited by mathematical constraints. Decision analysis may be preferable to second opinions in verifying surgical decisions.
在假设的手术情境中，对二次诊断意见和决策分析（决策者可用于描述和解决问题的一种数学过程）进行了比较。五十位外科专家给出了意见，并提供了通过决策分析解决问题所需的信息。每位外科医生的意见又被随机选作二次诊断意见。在六个疑难病例中，与先前确定的答案相比，59%的个人意见是正确的。对于两种手术二次诊断方案，准确率分别为54%和60%。决策分析的准确率为69%。二次诊断方案的改进可以通过数学方法预测且是有限的。决策分析的改进不受数学限制。在验证手术决策方面，决策分析可能比二次诊断意见更可取。
