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命中率和认知风格对贝叶斯推理的影响:来自眼动的证据。

Effect of hit rate and cognitive style on Bayesian reasoning: evidence from eye movements.

作者信息

Yin Lin, Shi Zifu, Liu Mei, Chen Huohong

机构信息

Cognition and Human Behavior Key Laboratory of Hunan Province, School of Educational Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China.

出版信息

Front Psychol. 2025 Mar 17;16:1485283. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2025.1485283. eCollection 2025.

DOI:10.3389/fpsyg.2025.1485283
PMID:40166404
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11955681/
Abstract

While psychological research has established both probability information and cognitive style as key factors in Bayesian reasoning, their interactive effects remain underexplored. We conducted an eye-tracking experiment with 52 undergraduates using EyeLink II to examine how hit rate variations and field dependence/independence influence reasoning patterns during classic Bayesian tasks. Results revealed significant hit rate × cognitive style interactions across multiple eye-tracking measures (total/average fixation durations, area-specific dwell time, fixation proportion). The attention prioritization followed the order: hit rate > false alarm rate > base rate, though base rate information retained measurable influence. High hit rates amplified field-dependent participants' base rate neglect, while field-independent individuals maintained stable attention allocation across conditions. Field-independent reasoners demonstrated superior concentration and more efficient cognitive resource allocation, employing systematic information-processing strategies. These findings clarify the cognitive hierarchy of probability weighting in Bayesian reasoning while validating the critical moderating role of individual differences in information processing styles.

摘要

虽然心理学研究已将概率信息和认知风格确立为贝叶斯推理的关键因素,但其交互作用仍未得到充分探索。我们使用EyeLink II对52名本科生进行了一项眼动追踪实验,以研究命中率变化和场依存性/独立性如何在经典贝叶斯任务中影响推理模式。结果显示,在多种眼动追踪指标(总/平均注视持续时间、特定区域停留时间、注视比例)上,命中率×认知风格存在显著交互作用。注意力优先级遵循以下顺序:命中率>误报率>基础概率,不过基础概率信息仍有可测量的影响。高命中率放大了场依存型参与者对基础概率的忽视,而场独立型个体在不同条件下保持稳定的注意力分配。场独立型推理者表现出更强的专注力和更高效的认知资源分配,采用系统的信息处理策略。这些发现阐明了贝叶斯推理中概率加权的认知层次,同时验证了个体在信息处理方式上的差异所起的关键调节作用。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4738/11955681/a2b74c7b1f16/fpsyg-16-1485283-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4738/11955681/d0446136caec/fpsyg-16-1485283-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4738/11955681/56a1b30c98b0/fpsyg-16-1485283-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4738/11955681/a2b74c7b1f16/fpsyg-16-1485283-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4738/11955681/d0446136caec/fpsyg-16-1485283-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4738/11955681/56a1b30c98b0/fpsyg-16-1485283-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4738/11955681/a2b74c7b1f16/fpsyg-16-1485283-g003.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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Effect of Probability Information on Bayesian Reasoning: A Study of Event-Related Potentials.概率信息对贝叶斯推理的影响:一项关于事件相关电位的研究。
Front Psychol. 2019 May 14;10:1106. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2019.01106. eCollection 2019.
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Within-subject consistency and between-subject variability in Bayesian reasoning strategies.
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Cogn Psychol. 2015 Sep;81:26-47. doi: 10.1016/j.cogpsych.2015.08.001. Epub 2015 Aug 29.
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