Baldrati A, Bini L, D'Alessandro R, Cortelli P, de Capoa D, De Carolis P, Sacquegna T
Cephalalgia. 1985 May;5 Suppl 2:195-9. doi: 10.1177/03331024850050S239.
Long-term migraine evolution is still undefined. The poorest outcome is the transformation from episodic attacks to a pattern of daily attacks or continuous headache with intermittent attacks. We called these cases "chronic migraine". The aim of our study was to investigate whether some clinical variables contributed to migraine chronicity. We interviewed 50 patients with chronic migraine from 2 to 15 years and 90 patients with episodic migraine matched for sex and age as a control group. Univariate analysis revealed two correlations with a chronic outcome: (1) In the control group a significantly higher number of women took oral contraceptives. (2) In the group who developed chronic migraine, there were a greater number of smokers, without reaching statistical significance. The stepwise multiple logistic regression method showed that these two variables influence the prognosis with a maximum likelihood estimate of 65%, hence not much higher than random probability.
偏头痛的长期演变仍不明确。最糟糕的结果是从发作性头痛转变为每日发作模式或伴有间歇性发作的持续性头痛。我们将这些病例称为“慢性偏头痛”。我们研究的目的是调查某些临床变量是否与偏头痛慢性化有关。我们采访了50例患有慢性偏头痛2至15年的患者以及90例年龄和性别相匹配的发作性偏头痛患者作为对照组。单因素分析显示有两个因素与慢性化结果相关：（1）在对照组中，服用口服避孕药的女性数量显著更多。（2）在发展为慢性偏头痛的组中，吸烟者数量更多，但未达到统计学意义。逐步多元逻辑回归方法表明，这两个变量影响预后，最大似然估计为65%，因此仅略高于随机概率。
