Schmidt Isabell, Gehlen Birgit, Winkler Katja, Arrizabalaga Alvaro, Arts Nico, Bicho Nuno, Crombé Philippe, Eriksen Berit Valentin, Grimm Sonja B, Kapustka Katarina, Langlais Mathieu, Mevel Ludovic, Naudinot Nicolas, Nerudová Zdeňka, Niekus Marcel, Peresani Marco, Riede Felix, Sauer Florian, Schön Werner, Sobkowiak-Tabaka Iwona, Vandendriessche Hans, Weber Mara-Julia, Zander Annabell, Zimmermann Andreas, Maier Andreas
Institute of Prehistoric Archaeology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Heinrich Schliemann-Institute of Ancient Studies, Seminar for Prehistoric Archaeology, University of Rostock, Rostock, Germany.
PLoS One. 2025 Apr 2;20(4):e0310942. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0310942. eCollection 2025.
The European Final Palaeolithic witnessed marked changes in almost all societal domains. Despite a rich body of evidence, our knowledge of human palaeodemographic processes and regional population dynamics still needs to be improved. In this study, we present regionally differentiated population estimates for the Greenland Interstadial 1d-a (GI-1d-a; 14-12.7 ka cal BP) and the Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1; 12.7-11.6 ka cal BP) for Southern, Western, Northern and Central Europe. The data were obtained by applying the Cologne Protocol, a geostatistical approach for estimating prehistoric population size and density, to a newly compiled dataset of Final Palaeolithic sites. On a large spatio-temporal scale and compared to preceding Upper Palaeolithic phases, areas north of the Alps become the dominant demographic growth area for the first time since the dispersal of anatomically modern humans into Europe. At smaller scales, we observe divergent regional trends, with a conspicuous lack of archaeological evidence appearing in previously occupied areas of central France and Germany. Our study also shows that during the Final Palaeolithic, the climatic cooling of GS-1 coincides with a pronounced population decline in most parts of the study area. An apparent increase in population density occurs only in north-eastern Central Europe and north-eastern Italy. Our estimates suggest that the total population was reduced by half. Similar results, with a relationship between decreasing temperatures and decreasing populations, have already been observed for the late phase of the Gravettian, when populations were reduced to only one third of those estimated for the early phase. Yet, in contrast to the collapse of local populations during the late Gravettian, the increase in population densities in Central Europe during GS-1 indicates population movements eastwards, possibly in response to deteriorating climatic conditions, particularly in western regions during the Younger Dryas.
欧洲旧石器时代晚期在几乎所有社会领域都见证了显著变化。尽管有丰富的证据，但我们对人类古人口统计学过程和区域人口动态的了解仍有待完善。在本研究中，我们给出了南欧、西欧、北欧和中欧在格陵兰间冰阶1d - a期（GI - 1d - a；校正后距今14 - 12.7千年）和格陵兰冰期1期（GS - 1；校正后距今12.7 - 11.6千年）的区域差异化人口估计。数据是通过将科隆议定书（一种用于估计史前人口规模和密度的地统计方法）应用于新编制的旧石器时代晚期遗址数据集而获得的。在大时空尺度上，与之前的旧石器时代晚期阶段相比，自解剖学意义上的现代人扩散到欧洲以来，阿尔卑斯山以北地区首次成为主要的人口增长区域。在较小尺度上，我们观察到不同的区域趋势，法国中部和德国先前有人居住的地区明显缺乏考古证据。我们的研究还表明，在旧石器时代晚期，GS - 1的气候变冷与研究区域大部分地区的人口显著下降相吻合。人口密度仅在中欧东北部和意大利东北部出现明显增加。我们的估计表明总人口减少了一半。在格拉维特文化晚期已经观察到类似的结果，即温度下降与人口减少之间存在关联，当时人口减少到早期估计数量的三分之一。然而，与格拉维特文化晚期当地人口的崩溃不同，GS - 1期间中欧人口密度的增加表明人口向东迁移，这可能是对气候条件恶化的反应，特别是在新仙女木期的西部地区。
