Thorne Karen M, Buffington Kevin J, Osland Michael J, Chivoiu Bogdan, Grace James B, Enwright Nicholas M, Guntenspergen Glenn R
U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA, 95616, USA.
U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, 700 Cajundome Blvd, Lafayette, LA, 70506, USA.
Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 3;15(1):11443. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-93437-z.
In this study, we explored the opportunities for tidal wetland landward migration in response to sea-level rise on the Pacific Coast of the United States. By employing a systematic spatial approach, we quantified the available space for wetland migration with sea-level rise across 61 estuarine drainage areas. Although many of the existing tidal wetlands are small patches, our analyses show that 63% of the estuaries lacked the landward migration space needed to replace current tidal wetland extent, thereby threatening a wide range of protected species and ecosystem services. Developed lands and steep topography represent common barriers to migration along the Pacific coast, especially in central and southern California. The available wetland migration space consists primarily of agriculture, pasture, and freshwater wetlands, with most of the area available for migration occurring in just a few watersheds. In most watersheds tidal wetland migration would only occur with human intervention or facilitation. The greatest amount of area available for wetland migration was in the San Francisco Bay-Delta and Columbia River estuaries, together accounting for 58% of all available migration space on the Pacific Coast. Nature-based solutions to reduce tidal wetland loss from sea-level rise can include restoration in suitable areas, removal of barriers to tidal wetland migration, and elevation building approaches. Tidal wetland restoration opportunities could increase area by 59%, underscoring it as a plausible approach to prevent tidal wetland loss in those estuaries and a viable Nature-based solution. 54% of estuaries building elevations of existing tidal wetlands may be the most feasible approach needed. Our analyses illustrate the importance of management efforts that use Nature-based approaches to prevent tidal wetland ecosystem and species loss over the coming decades from sea-level rise.
在本研究中，我们探索了美国太平洋沿岸潮汐湿地响应海平面上升向陆地迁移的机会。通过采用系统的空间方法，我们量化了61个河口排水区域海平面上升时湿地迁移的可用空间。尽管现有的许多潮汐湿地都是小块区域，但我们的分析表明，63%的河口缺乏取代当前潮汐湿地范围所需的向陆地迁移空间，从而威胁到广泛的受保护物种和生态系统服务。已开发土地和陡峭地形是太平洋沿岸湿地迁移的常见障碍，尤其是在加利福尼亚州中部和南部。可用的湿地迁移空间主要包括农业用地、牧场和淡水湿地，大部分可用于迁移的区域仅分布在少数几个流域。在大多数流域，潮汐湿地迁移只有在人类干预或促进下才会发生。湿地迁移可用面积最大的是旧金山湾-三角洲和哥伦比亚河河口，它们合起来占太平洋沿岸所有可用迁移空间的58%。基于自然的减少海平面上升导致的潮汐湿地损失的解决方案可以包括在合适区域进行恢复、消除潮汐湿地迁移的障碍以及采用抬高地势的方法。潮汐湿地恢复机会可使面积增加59%，这突出表明它是防止这些河口潮汐湿地损失的一种可行方法和基于自然的可行解决方案。54%的河口抬高现有潮汐湿地的地势可能是最可行的所需方法。我们的分析说明了利用基于自然的方法进行管理的重要性，以防止未来几十年海平面上升导致潮汐湿地生态系统和物种损失。
