Pooni H S, Jinks J L
Heredity (Edinb). 1985 Jun;54 ( Pt 3):397-411. doi: 10.1038/hdy.1985.57.
Standard biometrical genetical models of Mather and Jinks (1982) when made applicable to the means and variances of the 55 early generations produced by crossing four parents and six F1's in all possible combinations provide estimates of genetic parameters that can be used to predict the distributive properties of the first cycle inbreds and second cycle hybrids which could be extracted from any of these generations. Thus we can predict the inbreeding and outbreeding potentials of each generation in the early stages of a breeding programme and formulate the best breeding strategy for harnessing the full genetic potential of the breeding material and choosing the best end product. The 55 generations provide reliable estimates of the predictors and therefore should be used whenever possible. Simpler experiments consisting of the basic generations of the six single crosses, however, are sufficient for obtaining estimates of the predictors of the inbreds and can be used to predict their properties when information about the second cycle hybrids is not required or the remaining generations are not available. Replacement of the F2, backcross, three way cross and double cross generations with their randomly mated progenies is expected to improve the accuracy of predictions in the presence of a linkage disequilibrium. However, the gains made may not be justified against the costs of the additional breeding and the delay in making the predictions. Extensive experimental testing of the theory of these procedures must await the completion of the current field experiments. In the meantime the limited tests conducted on the material extracted from the Nicotiana rustica varieties V1, V2, V5 and V12 have confirmed the familiar conclusions that the V1 X V5 and V2 X V12 differ in their inbreeding and outcrossing potentials.
马瑟和金克斯（1982年）的标准生物统计学遗传模型，若应用于通过将四个亲本和六个F1以所有可能组合进行杂交所产生的55个早期世代的均值和方差，可提供遗传参数估计值，这些参数可用于预测从这些世代中任何一个提取的第一代近交系和第二代杂交种的分布特性。因此，我们可以在育种计划的早期阶段预测每个世代的近交和远交潜力，并制定最佳育种策略，以充分利用育种材料的全部遗传潜力并选择最佳最终产品。这55个世代提供了可靠的预测指标估计值，因此应尽可能使用。然而，由六个单交的基础世代组成的更简单实验，对于获得近交系预测指标的估计值就足够了，并且当不需要关于第二代杂交种的信息或无法获得其余世代时，可用于预测它们的特性。用其随机交配后代替代F2、回交、三交和双交世代，有望在存在连锁不平衡的情况下提高预测的准确性。然而，所获得的收益可能无法抵消额外育种的成本和预测延迟的代价。对这些程序理论的广泛实验测试必须等待当前田间实验的完成。与此同时，对从黄花烟草品种V1、V2、V5和V12中提取的材料进行的有限测试，证实了常见的结论，即V1×V5和V2×V12在近交和远交潜力方面存在差异。
