Lian Yueran, Qiu Haiyan, Zhou Haijian, Li Dongxue, Li Qing, Wu Xinmiao, Wang Zengliang, Zhang Zhijie, Zhang Cuicai, Kan Biao
School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, China.
National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
China CDC Wkly. 2025 Mar 28;7(13):422-427. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2025.070.
Leptospirosis has historically been a severe public health concern across multiple Chinese provinces. Despite an overall decline in incidence in recent years, the disease continues to exhibit fluctuations and occasionally triggers localized outbreaks. This study aimed to characterize the demographic and spatiotemporal patterns of leptospirosis in Anhui Province - a historically significant epidemic region - from 2004 to 2023, to investigate potential climatic and environmental risk factors, and to identify critical targets for disease prevention and control.
Spatiotemporal cluster analysis was conducted using SaTScan software. Spearman correlation analysis was performed using SPSS to examine the short-term lagged effects of rainfall, temperature, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) on leptospirosis incidence in the high-risk counties of Huaiyuan and Jingde.
A total of 458 leptospirosis cases were reported across Anhui Province during the 20-year study period. Middle-aged individuals (40-59 years), males, and agricultural workers constituted the primary high-risk populations. Spatiotemporal scanning identified nine adjacent hotspots in southern Anhui during 2004-2012, with a subsequent shift to Huaiyuan County in the northern Huaihe River Basin during 2016-2021. Significant associations were observed between leptospirosis cases and temperature, rainfall, and NDVI in both Huaiyuan and Jingde counties.
This study revealed significant spatial heterogeneity, distinct spatiotemporal clustering patterns, and potential climatic and environmental risk factors for leptospirosis in Anhui Province during 2004-2023. These findings provide critical information regarding target regions, high-risk populations, and climatic and environmental factors to inform early warning systems and enhance prevention and control strategies for leptospirosis.
钩端螺旋体病长期以来一直是中国多个省份严重的公共卫生问题。尽管近年来发病率总体呈下降趋势，但该疾病仍有波动，偶尔引发局部疫情。本研究旨在描述2004年至2023年安徽省（一个历史上重要的流行地区）钩端螺旋体病的人口统计学和时空模式，调查潜在的气候和环境风险因素，并确定疾病预防和控制的关键目标。
使用SaTScan软件进行时空聚类分析。使用SPSS进行Spearman相关性分析，以检验降雨、温度和归一化植被指数（NDVI）对怀远和泾县高危县钩端螺旋体病发病率的短期滞后影响。
在20年的研究期间，安徽省共报告了458例钩端螺旋体病病例。中年个体（40 - 59岁）、男性和农业工人是主要的高危人群。时空扫描发现2004 - 2012年皖南有9个相邻的热点地区，随后在2016 - 2021年转移到淮河流域北部的怀远县。在怀远县和泾县，钩端螺旋体病病例与温度、降雨和NDVI之间均存在显著关联。
本研究揭示了2004 - 2023年安徽省钩端螺旋体病存在显著的空间异质性、独特的时空聚集模式以及潜在的气候和环境风险因素。这些发现提供了有关目标地区、高危人群以及气候和环境因素 的关键信息，为预警系统提供参考，并加强钩端螺旋体病的预防和控制策略。
