Kang Li-Fang, Zhao Rui-Feng, Lu Hai-Tian, Liu Fu-Shou, Yang Lin-Qi, Ren Xiao-Tong
College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China.
Gansu Province Key Laboratory of Resource Environment and Sustainable Development of Oasis, Lanzhou 730070, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Apr 8;46(4):2439-2449. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202404129.
Climate change and a series of anthropogenic activities have caused significant changes in vegetation. Quantitative identification of the relative contributions of climate change and anthropogenic activities to the interannual changes in vegetation ecological quality in the Shiyang River Basin is of great value for coping with future climatic challenges and implementing ecological protection measures in the Shiyang River Basin. Based on vegetation ecological quality （EQI）, combined with multi-source remote sensing data, this study utilized slope trend analysis, partial correlation analysis, and residual analysis to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation ecological quality change and the partial correlation relationship with climate factors in the Shiyang River Basin and explored the relative contribution of climate change and anthropogenic activities to EQI trend change. The results showed that： ① EQI in the Shiyang River Basin increased steadily from 2002 to 2021, and the growth rate of EQI in the mountain area and oasis was significantly higher than that in the desert area. From southwest to northeast, the distribution pattern increased first and then decreased, and the regions with a faster increase in EQI were distributed around the oasis edge. ② Both temperature and precipitation in the Shiyang River Basin increased during the recent 20 years, and the positive effect of precipitation factor on vegetation greening was greater than that of temperature. ③ Climate change and anthropogenic activities contributed 33% and 67%, respectively, to the increase of EQI in the Shiyang River Basin in the past 20 years, and the positive impact of anthropogenic activities on vegetation ecological quality was continuously strengthened. The research results provide important reference for the formulation of vegetation ecological protection and management policies in the Shiyang River basin.
气候变化和一系列人为活动已导致植被发生显著变化。定量识别气候变化和人为活动对石羊河流域植被生态质量年际变化的相对贡献，对于应对未来气候挑战和实施石羊河流域生态保护措施具有重要价值。本研究基于植被生态质量（EQI），结合多源遥感数据，利用斜率趋势分析、偏相关分析和残差分析，分析了石羊河流域植被生态质量变化的时空格局及其与气候因子的偏相关关系，探讨了气候变化和人为活动对EQI趋势变化的相对贡献。结果表明：①2002—2021年石羊河流域EQI呈稳步上升趋势，山区和绿洲的EQI增长速率显著高于荒漠区。从西南向东北，分布格局呈先增加后减少，EQI增加较快的区域分布在绿洲边缘附近。②近20年石羊河流域气温和降水均呈增加趋势，降水因子对植被绿化的正向作用大于气温。③气候变化和人为活动对石羊河流域近20年EQI增加的贡献率分别为33%和67%，人为活动对植被生态质量的正向影响不断增强。研究结果为石羊河流域植被生态保护与管理政策的制定提供了重要参考。
