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冬季风暴“尤里”过后德克萨斯州疗养院非新冠死亡情况的关联:一项混合效应样条分析

Association of Texas Nursing Home Non-COVID-19 Mortality Following Winter Storm Uri: A Mixed-Effects Spline Analysis.

作者信息

Frochen Stephen, Saliba Debra, Dobalian Aram

机构信息

Center for the Study of Healthcare Innovation, Implementation, and Policy (CSHIIP), VA Greater Los Angeles Healthcare System, North Hills, CA, USA.

Veterans Emergency Management Evaluation Center (VEMEC), VA Greater Los Angeles Healthcare System, North Hills, CA, USA.

出版信息

Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2025 Apr 16;19:e98. doi: 10.1017/dmp.2025.86.

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

Nursing Home residents are among the most at-risk populations during disasters. This study aimed to examine changes in nursing home non-COVID-19 mortality in Texas during Winter Storm Uri.

METHODS

Publicly available datasets were examined to determine whether nursing homes in Texas were associated with a change in non-COVID-19 nursing home mortality and a change in non-COVID-19 mortality differences compared to all other states in the 4 weeks following Winter Storm Uri. This study conducted a mixed-effects negative binomial spline analysis of non-COVID-19 mortality during the timeframe.

RESULTS

Although Texas suffered fewer deaths overall compared to the rest of the country, Texas experienced a 20% increase in non-COVID-19 deaths in the first 7 days of Winter Storm Uri, and a reduction in the change of deaths compared to all other states, indicating a 19% decrease in the difference between the 2 directly following the storm.

CONCLUSIONS

Texas suffered a significant increase in non-COVID-19 nursing home mortality during Winter Storm Uri, but overall lower levels of mortality compared to the rest of the nation. Future research should examine other states or counties that experienced significant energy outages for a more comprehensive understanding of the storm's effects.

摘要

目的

养老院居民是灾害期间风险最高的人群之一。本研究旨在调查冬季风暴“尤里”期间德克萨斯州养老院非新冠病毒死亡情况的变化。

方法

研究公开可用数据集,以确定德克萨斯州的养老院与非新冠病毒养老院死亡率的变化以及与冬季风暴“尤里”过后4周内所有其他州相比非新冠病毒死亡率差异的变化是否相关。本研究对该时间段内的非新冠病毒死亡率进行了混合效应负二项式样条分析。

结果

尽管与美国其他地区相比,德克萨斯州总体死亡人数较少,但在冬季风暴“尤里”的前7天,该州非新冠病毒死亡人数增加了20%,且与所有其他州相比死亡人数变化有所减少,这表明风暴过后紧接着的两周内两者差异减少了19%。

结论

在冬季风暴“尤里”期间,德克萨斯州养老院非新冠病毒死亡率显著上升,但与美国其他地区相比总体死亡率较低。未来的研究应调查其他经历严重停电的州或县,以更全面地了解风暴的影响。

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