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灾害下以乘客为中心的城市轨道交通网络韧性评估:一个动态韧性评估框架

Assessment of urban rail transit network passenger-centered resilience under hazards: A dynamic resilience assessment framework.

作者信息

Lu Ying, Yi Minmin, Cui Jianqiang, Wu Guangdong, Lin Dong

机构信息

School of Civil Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 211189, China.

School of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2025 Jul;217:108042. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2025.108042. Epub 2025 Apr 22.

Abstract

Urban rail transit (URT) is vulnerable to cascading failures from disasters due to their complexity. In modern society, we should pay more attention to the experience of passengers and enhance the quality of service in URT. This paper develops a model using dynamic indicators to assess the disaster resilience of URT. It presents a novel passenger-centered resilience assessment method that reflects dynamic passenger flow demand indicators. A cascading failure model under Geometric Attack Model was established to simulate the route choice of passengers before and after cascading failure. This paper collected data on the Beijing subway, analyzed the features of dynamic passenger flow resilience indicators, and assessed the disaster resilience of the Beijing subway. Results show: (1) generalized travel time costs and transfer times for passengers increase after cascading failures, indicating reduced system resilience; and (2) two indicators are at moderately low resilience levels. This shows that passenger travel routes become more complicated after station failure, and the network's ability to restore service and maintain service quality in the aftermath of unexpected events needs improvement. The paper suggests improving disaster resistance by adding redundant lines and other measures and also discusses adjusting assessment strategies based on the unique characteristics of different cities. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the model, and based on this, guiding suggestions were made for optimization strategies.

摘要

城市轨道交通(URT)由于其复杂性,容易受到灾害引发的连锁故障影响。在现代社会,我们应更加关注乘客体验,提高城市轨道交通的服务质量。本文开发了一种使用动态指标评估城市轨道交通灾害恢复力的模型。它提出了一种以乘客为中心的新型恢复力评估方法,该方法反映了动态客流需求指标。建立了几何攻击模型下的连锁故障模型,以模拟连锁故障前后乘客的路线选择。本文收集了北京地铁的数据,分析了动态客流恢复力指标的特征,并评估了北京地铁的灾害恢复力。结果表明:(1)连锁故障后乘客的广义出行时间成本和换乘时间增加,表明系统恢复力下降;(2)两个指标处于中等偏低的恢复力水平。这表明车站故障后乘客出行路线变得更加复杂,网络在突发事件后恢复服务和维持服务质量的能力有待提高。本文建议通过增加冗余线路等措施提高抗灾能力,并讨论了根据不同城市的独特特征调整评估策略。对该模型进行了敏感性分析,并据此对优化策略提出了指导建议。

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