Jiang Z Y, Meng R L, Zhang R Y, Gu X L, Hu J X, Yu M, Chen Y, Zhou C L, Huang B, Liang Z Y, Chen S J, Li J H, He G H, Liu T, Guo H, Ma W J
Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
Institute of Control and Prevention for Chronic Non-infective Disease, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou 511430, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2025 Apr 10;46(4):566-572. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240911-00569.
To evaluate the association between heatwaves and fall-related mortality. A total of 61 421 fall-related mortality from 2013 to 2022 in 7 provinces of China were included in a time-stratified case-crossover design, with daily meteorological data derived from the fifth generation European Reanalysis dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Conditional logistic regression chimeric distributed lag nonlinear model was used to analyze the association between heatwaves and fall-related mortality and stratified analysis was conducted according to gender and age. Heatwaves were associated with an increased risk of fall-related morality. The risk of fall-related mortality during heatwaves was higher than during non-heatwave periods (=1.11, 95%: 1.05-1.18). The attributable fraction of fall-related motality due to heatwaves was 10.25% (95%: 4.49%-15.36%). For each 1 ℃ increase above the heatwave threshold, the risk of fall-related mortality increased by 34% (=1.34, 95%: 1.02-1.76). The effect of heatwave duration on fall-related mortality was not statistically significant. Stratified analyses indicated that women experienced a higher risk of fall-related mortality during heatwaves (=1.13, 95% 1.04-1.22) compared to man (=1.10, 95% 1.04-1.17). Heatwave increases the risk of fall-related mortality, and the intensity of heatwaves modify this risk. Women are vulnerable populations.