Yu S W, Yu M, Zheng A X, Zhou C L, Meng R L, Huang B, Xiao Y Z, Wu W, He G H, Hu J X, Ma W J, Liu T
Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China China Greater Bay Area Research Center of Environmental Health, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2025 Apr 10;46(4):573-580. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240911-00568.
To evaluate the impact of short-term exposure to daytime heatwaves, nighttime heatwaves, and compound heatwaves on the risk of road traffic mortality and calculate the attributable mortality burden. This study collected road traffic mortality data from the Disease Surveillance System in Guangdong, Hunan, Zhejiang, Yunnan, and Jilin Provinces from 2013 to 2018. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used in this study, with the death date for each case serving as the case day. Control days were selected from the same year, month, and day of the week as the case day. A conditional logistic regression model was employed to estimate the cumulative associations of short-term exposure to daytime heatwaves, nighttime heatwaves, and compound heatwaves on the risk of road traffic mortality (lag 0-1 day) and to calculate the attributable fractions (AF). Compared to non-heatwave days, the excess risk () of road traffic mortality on daytime heatwave days, nighttime heatwave days, and compound heatwave days was 5.3% (95%: 0.5%-10.2%), 4.9% (95%: 0.5%-9.4%) and 7.5% (95%: 2.3%- 12.9%), with corresponding AF of 5.0% (95%: 0.5%-9.3%), 4.7% (95%: 0.5%-8.6%), and 6.9% (95%: 2.3%-11.4%), respectively. Stratified analysis showed that the risk of traffic mortalities caused by daytime heatwaves was higher in females (=15.7%, 95%: 5.8%-26.5%) than in males (=1.8%, 95%: -3.6%-7.4%). Elderly individuals over 64 years old (=10.9%, 95%: 0.3%- 22.6%) had a higher risk of road traffic mortalities from compound heatwaves than those under 45 years old (=2.6%, 95%: -5.4%-11.2%). The risk of road traffic injury mortality from motor vehicle accidents caused by compound heatwaves (=16.6%, 95%:2.4%-32.7%) was higher than that from non-motor vehicle accidents (=5.7%, 95%:0.1%-11.5%). Short-term exposure to daytime heatwaves, nighttime heatwaves, and compound heatwaves was associated with an increased risk of road traffic mortality, with the strongest association observed for compound heatwaves. The mortality burden attributable to compound heatwaves was higher than that for daytime and nighttime heatwaves. Heatwaves were more significantly associated with road traffic mortality risk among females, elderly individuals over 64 years old, and motor vehicle accidents.
评估短期暴露于白天热浪、夜间热浪和复合热浪对道路交通死亡率风险的影响,并计算可归因的死亡负担。本研究收集了2013年至2018年广东、湖南、浙江、云南和吉林省疾病监测系统的道路交通死亡率数据。本研究采用时间分层病例交叉设计,以每个病例的死亡日期作为病例日。对照日从与病例日同年、同月、同日的星期中选取。采用条件逻辑回归模型估计短期暴露于白天热浪、夜间热浪和复合热浪对道路交通死亡率风险(滞后0 - 1天)的累积关联,并计算归因分数(AF)。与非热浪日相比,白天热浪日、夜间热浪日和复合热浪日道路交通死亡率的超额风险()分别为5.3%(95%:0.5% - 10.2%)、4.9%(95%:0.5% - 9.4%)和7.5%(95%:2.3% - 12.9%),相应的AF分别为5.0%(95%:0.5% - 9.3%)、4.7%(95%:0.5% - 8.6%)和6.9%(95%:2.3% - 11.4%)。分层分析表明,白天热浪导致的交通死亡率风险在女性中(=15.7%,95%:5.8% - 26.5%)高于男性(=1.8%,95%: - 3.6% - 7.4%)。64岁以上的老年人(=10.9%,95%:0.3% - 22.6%)因复合热浪导致的道路交通死亡率风险高于45岁以下的人群(=2.6%,95%: - 5.4% - 11.2%)。复合热浪导致的机动车事故引起的道路交通伤害死亡率风险(=16.6%,95%:2.4% - 32.7%)高于非机动车事故(=5.7%,95%:0.1% - 11.5%)。短期暴露于白天热浪、夜间热浪和复合热浪与道路交通死亡率风险增加相关,但复合热浪的关联最强。复合热浪导致的死亡负担高于白天和夜间热浪。热浪在女性、64岁以上的老年人以及机动车事故中与道路交通死亡率风险的关联更为显著。