DeWinter Sydney, Nichol Grace K, Fernandez-Prada Christopher, Greer Amy L, Weese J Scott, Clow Katie M
Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada.
Department of Pathology and Microbiology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Montreal, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada.
Parasit Vectors. 2025 Apr 25;18(1):154. doi: 10.1186/s13071-025-06781-4.
In the Americas, sand flies of the Lutzomyia genus are the vectors of pathogens of human and animal health significance. Lutzomyia shannoni is suspected to transmit vesicular stomatitis virus, along with Leishmania mexicana and Leishmania infantum (causative agents of leishmaniases). Despite the suspected vector potential of Lu. shannoni, significant knowledge gaps remain, including how ongoing climate changes could facilitate their range expansion. The objectives of this study were to predict the current and future ecological suitability of regions across North America for Lu. shannoni and to identify variables driving ecological suitability.
Occurrence records were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Disease Vectors Database, the National Museum of Natural History (Smithsonian Institution) and published literature on Lu. shannoni surveillance and capture. Historical climate data from 1991-2020, along with projection data for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 3-7.0 were obtained. An additional terrestrial ecoregions layer was applied. The ecological niche model was created using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithms to identify regions which currently are or may become ecologically suitable for Lu. shannoni.
Currently, regions in eastern, western and southern Mexico, along with the Midwest, southeastern and eastern regions of the USA are ecologically suitable for Lu. shannoni. In the future, ecological suitability for Lu. shannoni is expected to increase slightly in the northeastern regions of the USA and in Atlantic Canada, and to decrease in the southeastern reaches of Mexico. Degree-days below 0 °C (spring and autumn), precipitation as snow (summer and winter), terrestrial ecoregions, number of frost-free days (summer), Hargreaves climatic moisture deficit (summer), degree-days above 5 °C (autumn) and Hogg's climatic moisture index (summer) were all identified as predictors of ecological suitability.
The findings from this study identified climate and environmental variables driving the ecological suitability of regions for Lu. shannoni and can be used to inform public health professionals of high-risk regions for exposure at present and into the future.
在美洲，白蛉属的沙蝇是对人类和动物健康具有重要意义的病原体的传播媒介。香农白蛉被怀疑传播水疱性口炎病毒，以及墨西哥利什曼原虫和婴儿利什曼原虫（利什曼病的病原体）。尽管香农白蛉具有潜在的传播媒介可能性，但仍存在重大的知识空白，包括当前的气候变化如何促进其分布范围的扩大。本研究的目的是预测北美地区当前和未来对香农白蛉的生态适宜性，并确定驱动生态适宜性的变量。
从全球生物多样性信息设施、病媒数据库、国家自然历史博物馆（史密森学会）以及关于香农白蛉监测和捕获的已发表文献中获取出现记录。获取了1991 - 2020年的历史气候数据，以及共享社会经济路径2 - 4.5和3 - 7.0的预测数据。还应用了一个额外的陆地生态区域图层。使用最大熵（MaxEnt）算法创建生态位模型，以识别当前或未来可能对香农白蛉具有生态适宜性的区域。
目前，墨西哥东部、西部和南部的地区，以及美国的中西部、东南部和东部地区对香农白蛉具有生态适宜性。未来，预计美国东北部地区和加拿大大西洋地区对香农白蛉的生态适宜性将略有增加，而墨西哥东南部地区将下降。低于0°C的度日数（春季和秋季）、降雪量（夏季和冬季）、陆地生态区域、无霜天数（夏季）、哈格里夫斯气候水分亏缺（夏季）、高于5°C的度日数（秋季）和霍格气候水分指数（夏季）均被确定为生态适宜性的预测因子。
本研究的结果确定了驱动各地区对香农白蛉生态适宜性的气候和环境变量，可用于告知公共卫生专业人员当前和未来的高风险暴露区域。
