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气候变化预测下中国西南地区的栖息地适宜性变化

Habitat Suitability Shifts of in Southwest China Under Climate Change Projections.

作者信息

Liu Qi, Liu Longjiang, Xue Juan, Shi Peiyao, Liang Shanshan

机构信息

College of Pharmacy, Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guiyang 550025, China.

Provincial Inheritance Base of Traditional Chinese Medicine Processing under National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guiyang 550025, China.

出版信息

Biology (Basel). 2025 Apr 21;14(4):451. doi: 10.3390/biology14040451.

DOI:10.3390/biology14040451
PMID:40282316
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12024585/
Abstract

As a Chinese endemic species with dual medicinal-industrial importance, faces habitat challenges under climate change. Using 21 bioclimatic variables and 704 occurrence records, we modeled current and future (2021-2100) distributions via MaxEnt 3.4.4 and ArcGIS 10.8. The results indicate the following: (1) current optimal habitats cluster in the mid-elevation valleys of Daba-Wuling Mountains (Guizhou-Chongqing core); (2) SSP5-8.5 projections suggest a 19.2% reduction in high-suitability areas by 2081-2100 versus SSP1-2.6; and (3) distribution centroids migrate southward under both scenarios. Our multi-temporal analysis provides actionable intelligence for ex situ conservation and agroforestry planning.

摘要

作为一种具有医药和工业双重重要性的中国特有物种，在气候变化下面临栖息地挑战。我们利用21个生物气候变量和704个出现记录，通过MaxEnt 3.4.4和ArcGIS 10.8对当前和未来（2021 - 2100年）的分布进行建模。结果表明：（1）当前的最佳栖息地集中在大巴山 - 武陵山中海拔山谷（贵州 - 重庆核心区）；（2）与SSP1 - 2.6相比，SSP5 - 8.5预测显示到2081 - 2100年，高适宜区将减少19.2%；（3）在两种情景下，分布中心均向南迁移。我们的多时期分析为迁地保护和农林业规划提供了可操作的情报。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/1c0aa1f24c71/biology-14-00451-g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/59cc81ad1d15/biology-14-00451-g001.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/49d2e811cb1e/biology-14-00451-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/762b450fe8b7/biology-14-00451-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/5b38d20b9adb/biology-14-00451-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/7e78451ec0d5/biology-14-00451-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/beee01794c92/biology-14-00451-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/1c0aa1f24c71/biology-14-00451-g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/59cc81ad1d15/biology-14-00451-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/da047bc3b462/biology-14-00451-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/49d2e811cb1e/biology-14-00451-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/762b450fe8b7/biology-14-00451-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/5b38d20b9adb/biology-14-00451-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/7e78451ec0d5/biology-14-00451-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/beee01794c92/biology-14-00451-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8aa7/12024585/1c0aa1f24c71/biology-14-00451-g008.jpg

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