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成人 COVID-19 感染住院患者的临床病程及死亡预测因素——一项回顾性队列研究

Clinical Course and Mortality Predictors in Adult Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 Infection-A Retrospective Cohort Study.

作者信息

Blagoeva Vesela, Hodzhev Vladimir, Uchikov Petar, Dobreva-Yatseva Bistra, Stoyanova Rumyana, Shterev Maritza, Atiq Samiya, Prasad Akanksha, Shankar Babu Sriharini

机构信息

Pulmonology and Tuberculosis Section, First Department of Internal Medicine, Medical University of Plovdiv, 4002 Plovdiv, Bulgaria.

Department of Special Surgery, Medical University of Plovdiv, 4002 Plovdiv, Bulgaria.

出版信息

Medicina (Kaunas). 2025 Mar 24;61(4):579. doi: 10.3390/medicina61040579.

Abstract

: Bulgaria had the highest mortality rate of COVID-19 in Europe and the second highest in the world based on statistical data. This study aimed to determine the mortality predictors in 306 adult patients with COVID-19 infection, treated at the COVID-19 Ward of St. George University Hospital in Plovdiv, Bulgaria in the period of August 2021-April 2022. : All admitted and treated patients had a positive PCR test for SARS-CoV-2. They were assigned in three groups based on the severity rating scale published in NIH COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines by Stat Pearls Publishing, 2022. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory parameters and pre-existing comorbidities were investigated. Parametric and non-parametric methods were used for statistics. Logistic regression was applied for parameters significantly associated with mortality. : Data showed that demographic indicators were not significantly associated with poorer outcome. Among comorbidities, cardiovascular, chronic pulmonary and endocrine disorders were found to be related to poor survival rates ( = 0.003, = 0.003 and = 0.017 resp.) Clinical symptoms, such as sore throat, dry or productive cough and breathlessness, were determinants of poor outcome ( = 0.027, = 0.029, = 0.004 and = 0.002 resp.). Laboratory parameters linked to mortality were elevated d-dimers ( = 0.015), ferritin ( = 0.009) and creatinine ( = 0.038). p02 < 50 and saturation < 90 also indicated a higher risk of death ( = 0.006 and = 0021). : Logistic regression showed that each stage of disease severity increased the risk of death 3.6 times, chronic pulmonary disorders increased it by 4.1, endocrine by 2.4 and dyspnea by 3.1 times.

摘要

根据统计数据,保加利亚的新冠病毒病死亡率在欧洲最高,在全球排第二。本研究旨在确定2021年8月至2022年4月期间在保加利亚普罗夫迪夫的圣乔治大学医院新冠病房接受治疗的306例成年新冠病毒感染患者的死亡预测因素。所有入院并接受治疗的患者严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2聚合酶链反应检测均呈阳性。根据Stat Pearls Publishing 2022年发布的美国国立卫生研究院新冠治疗指南中的严重程度评级量表,将他们分为三组。对人口统计学、临床和实验室参数以及既往合并症进行了调查。采用参数和非参数方法进行统计分析。对与死亡率显著相关的参数应用逻辑回归分析。数据显示,人口统计学指标与较差的预后无显著相关性。在合并症中,心血管疾病、慢性肺部疾病和内分泌疾病与生存率低相关(分别为P=0.003、P=0.003和P=0.017)。临床症状,如咽痛、干咳或咳痰、呼吸困难,是预后不良的决定因素(分别为P=0.027、P=0.029、P=0.004和P=0.002)。与死亡率相关的实验室参数包括d-二聚体升高(P=0.015)、铁蛋白(P=0.009)和肌酐(P=0.038)。氧分压<50和血氧饱和度<90也表明死亡风险较高(P=0.006和P=0.021)。逻辑回归分析显示,疾病严重程度的每个阶段使死亡风险增加3.6倍,慢性肺部疾病使其增加4.1倍,内分泌疾病使其增加2.4倍,呼吸困难使其增加3.1倍。

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