Chen Junyan, Meng Cen
The Fourth Clinical College, China Medical University, Shenyang, China.
Ann Surg Oncol. 2025 Apr 27. doi: 10.1245/s10434-025-17234-8.
Urological cancers represent an increasing public health concern in the labour force, mainly including prostate cancer (PCA), kidney cancer (KCA), testicular cancer (TCA), and bladder cancer (BLCA). Limited data exist on their occurrence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The objective of this study was to analyse three-decade trends in these cancers globally and forecast future patterns.
The study used Global Burden of Disease 2021 data from 1990 to 2021 to evaluate urological cancer stats, including prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs. For people aged 15-64 years, it was then manually age-standardized once. Herein, we employed a range of analytical techniques, including decomposition analysis, a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model, a Concentration index and slope index, and frontier analysis, to examine the trends in 204 countries and regions. Furthermore, the relationship between the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and the burden of disease is addressed.
Over the past 30 years, PCA, TCA, and KCA rates have risen among the global labour force population. North America, North Asia, and Europe have high incidence and mortality rates. TCA mortality and BLCA and TCA prevalence are expected to continue rising globally until 2050. Urological cancer impacts vary by region and development with more burden in areas with a higher SDI.
Urological cancers represent a substantial disease burden on labour force populations, emphasizing the imperative for targeted interventions and healthcare resources for affected populations. It is therefore crucial to have a comprehensive understanding of the global and regional epidemiological trends, as well as the findings of health economics studies.
泌尿系统癌症对劳动力群体的公共卫生构成了日益严重的威胁，主要包括前列腺癌（PCA）、肾癌（KCA）、睾丸癌（TCA）和膀胱癌（BLCA）。关于这些癌症的发病情况、死亡人数和伤残调整生命年（DALY）的数据有限。本研究的目的是分析全球范围内这三种癌症三十年的发展趋势，并预测未来模式。
本研究使用了1990年至2021年全球疾病负担数据来评估泌尿系统癌症统计数据，包括患病率、发病率、死亡率和DALY。对于15至64岁的人群，然后进行了一次人工年龄标准化。在此，我们采用了一系列分析技术，包括分解分析、贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型、集中度指数和斜率指数以及前沿分析，以研究204个国家和地区的趋势。此外，还探讨了社会人口指数（SDI）与疾病负担之间的关系。
在过去30年中，全球劳动力人口中PCA、TCA和KCA的发病率有所上升。北美、北亚和欧洲的发病率和死亡率较高。预计到2050年，全球TCA死亡率以及BLCA和TCA患病率将继续上升。泌尿系统癌症的影响因地区和发展水平而异，SDI较高地区的负担更重。
泌尿系统癌症给劳动力群体带来了巨大的疾病负担，强调了针对受影响人群进行有针对性干预和提供医疗资源的紧迫性。因此，全面了解全球和区域的流行病学趋势以及卫生经济学研究结果至关重要。
