Samal Shailesh Kumar, Gaidhane Shilpa, Jena Diptismita, Roopashree R, Kaur Mandeep, Nathiya Deepak, Sharma Aryantika, Prasad G V Siva, Sinha Aashna, Jain Lara, Jaiswal Vaibhav, Shabil Muhammed, Bushi Ganesh, Sah Sanjit, Alqurainees Ghaya, Alotaibi Jawaher, Alshiekheid Maha A, Sabour Amal A, Al Kaabi Nawal A, Alrasheed Hayam A, Halwani Muhammad A, Almansour Zainab H, Aljebaly Fatimah S, Alfaresi Mubarak, Rabaan Ali A
Global Center for Evidence Synthesis, Chandigarh, India.
Unit of Immunology and Chronic Disease, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm 17177, Sweden.
J Infect Public Health. 2025 Jul;18(7):102736. doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102736. Epub 2025 Mar 8.
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant global health concern. Although the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have relatively lower TB incidence rates, they face unique challenges, particularly with a large migrant workforce from TB-endemic regions. Understanding trends in TB burden in these countries is essential for guiding public health strategies.
We analyzed TB trends in GCC countries from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Joinpoint regression assessed temporal trends, and ARIMA modeling was used to forecast future TB incidence, mortality, and DALYs. The metrics considered age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), DALYs rate (ASDR), and incidence rates (ASIR). Data visualizations, including choropleth maps and trend graphs, were also created using R and MS Excel.
From 1990-2021, TB incidence, mortality, and DALYs showed a steady decline across the GCC countries. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased by an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of -5.39 %, while the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) decreased at a slightly higher rate of -5.50 %. Forecasting through 2031 predicts a continued decline: the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) will fall from 28.4 per 100,000 in 2022-5.4 by 2031, and mortality is expected to decline from 3.87 per 100,000 to 2.39 over the same period. DALYs are projected to decrease from 103.5 in 2022-62 by 2031. Countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia showed significant improvements, with Qatar achieving a 95.56 % reduction in mortality. However, the UAE with a 61.18 % reduction in incidence and DALYs, showed a 26.71 % increase in mortality.
TB control in GCC countries shows positive trends, reflecting successful public health interventions. However, challenges remain, particularly the high prevalence of TB among migrant populations. Continued efforts and tailored interventions are essential to sustain progress toward TB elimination.
结核病仍然是全球重大的公共卫生问题。尽管海湾合作委员会（GCC）国家的结核病发病率相对较低，但它们面临着独特的挑战，尤其是来自结核病流行地区的大量移民劳动力带来的挑战。了解这些国家结核病负担的趋势对于指导公共卫生战略至关重要。
我们使用全球疾病负担（GBD）研究的数据，分析了1990年至2021年海湾合作委员会国家的结核病趋势。Joinpoint回归评估时间趋势，ARIMA模型用于预测未来结核病发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年。所考虑的指标包括年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）、伤残调整生命年率（ASDR）和发病率（ASIR）。还使用R和MS Excel创建了数据可视化，包括分级统计图和趋势图。
1990年至2021年期间，海湾合作委员会国家的结核病发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年呈稳步下降趋势。年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）的年均变化百分比（AAPC）下降了-5.39%，而年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率（ASDR）的下降速度略高，为-5.50%。到2031年的预测显示将持续下降：年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）将从2022年的每10万人28.4例降至2031年的5.4例，同期死亡率预计将从每10万人3.87例降至2.39例。伤残调整生命年预计将从2022年的103.5例降至2031年的62例。卡塔尔和沙特阿拉伯等国家取得了显著改善，卡塔尔的死亡率降低了95.56%。然而，阿联酋的发病率和伤残调整生命年降低了61.18%，但其死亡率却上升了26.71%。
海湾合作委员会国家的结核病控制呈现出积极趋势，反映了公共卫生干预措施的成功。然而，挑战依然存在，尤其是移民人群中结核病的高流行率。持续努力和量身定制的干预措施对于维持结核病消除进程的进展至关重要。
