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Identification and Validation of an Explainable Prediction Model of Sepsis in Patients With Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Multicenter Retrospective Study.

作者信息

Liu Xianglin, Huang Zhihua, Guo Yizhi, Li Yandeng, Zhu Jianming, Wen Jun, Gao Yunchun, Liu Jianyi

机构信息

Changde Hospital, Xiangya School of Medicine, Central South University (The First People's Hospital of Changde City), Changde, China.

出版信息

J Med Internet Res. 2025 Apr 28;27:e71413. doi: 10.2196/71413.


DOI:10.2196/71413
PMID:40293793
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12070006/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a life-threatening condition frequently observed in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) who are critically ill. Early and accurate identification and prediction of sepsis are crucial. Machine learning (ML)-based predictive models exhibit promising sepsis prediction capabilities in emergency settings. However, their application in predicting sepsis among patients with ICH is still limited. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study is to develop an ML-driven risk calculator for early prediction of sepsis in patients with ICH who are critically ill and to clarify feature importance and explain the model using the Shapley Additive Explanations method. METHODS: Patients with ICH admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database between 2008 and 2022 were divided into training and internal test sets. The external test was performed using the eICU Collaborative Research Database, which includes over 200,000 ICU admissions across the United States between 2014 and 2015. Sepsis following ICU admission was identified using Sepsis-3.0 through clinical diagnosis combining elevation of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment by ≥2 points with suspected infection. The Boruta algorithm was used for feature selection, confirming 29 features. Nine ML algorithms were used to construct the prediction models. Predictive performance was compared using several evaluation metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The Shapley Additive Explanations technique was used to interpret the final model, and a web-based risk calculator was constructed for clinical practice. RESULTS: Overall, 2414 patients with ICH were enrolled from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database, with 1689 and 725 patients assigned to the training and internal test sets, respectively. An external test set of 2806 patients with ICH from the eICU database was used. Among the 9 ML models tested, the categorical boosting (CatBoost) model demonstrated the best discriminative ability. After reducing features based on their importance, an explainable final CatBoost model was developed using 8 features. The final model accurately predicted sepsis in internal (AUC=0.812) and external (AUC=0.771) tests. CONCLUSIONS: We constructed a web-based risk calculator with 8 features based on the CatBoost model to assist clinicians in identifying people at high risk for sepsis in patients with ICH who are critically ill.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b3c2/12070006/d7d667b3cd25/jmir_v27i1e71413_fig3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b3c2/12070006/25f2230077f2/jmir_v27i1e71413_fig1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b3c2/12070006/33b404a72761/jmir_v27i1e71413_fig2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b3c2/12070006/d7d667b3cd25/jmir_v27i1e71413_fig3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b3c2/12070006/25f2230077f2/jmir_v27i1e71413_fig1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b3c2/12070006/33b404a72761/jmir_v27i1e71413_fig2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b3c2/12070006/d7d667b3cd25/jmir_v27i1e71413_fig3.jpg

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[1]
Identification and Validation of an Explainable Prediction Model of Sepsis in Patients With Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Multicenter Retrospective Study.

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引用本文的文献

[1]
Machine learning models predict risk of lower extremity deep vein thrombosis in hospitalized patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

Sci Rep. 2025-7-10

本文引用的文献

[1]
Interpretable machine learning model for new-onset atrial fibrillation prediction in critically ill patients: a multi-center study.

Crit Care. 2024-10-29

[2]
Identification and validation of an explainable prediction model of acute kidney injury with prognostic implications in critically ill children: a prospective multicenter cohort study.

EClinicalMedicine. 2024-1-5

[3]
Building gender-specific sexually transmitted infection risk prediction models using CatBoost algorithm and NHANES data.

BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2024-1-24

[4]
Construction and validation of machine learning models for sepsis prediction in patients with acute pancreatitis.

BMC Surg. 2023-9-1

[5]
Phonocardiogram transfer learning-based CatBoost model for diastolic dysfunction identification using multiple domain-specific deep feature fusion.

Comput Biol Med. 2023-4

[6]
MIMIC-IV, a freely accessible electronic health record dataset.

Sci Data. 2023-1-3

[7]
Sepsis-Exacerbated Brain Dysfunction After Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

Front Cell Neurosci. 2022-1-21

[8]
Quantification of Sepsis Model Alerts in 24 US Hospitals Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

JAMA Netw Open. 2021-11-1

[9]
Using CatBoost algorithm to identify middle-aged and elderly depression, national health and nutrition examination survey 2011-2018.

Psychiatry Res. 2021-12

[10]
A Machine Learning Model for Accurate Prediction of Sepsis in ICU Patients.

Front Public Health. 2021

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