Díaz-Cao José Manuel, Grossmann Nárjara, Goodman Steven M, Bosch Jaime, Guis Helene, Rasamoelina Miatrana, Rakotoarivony Rianja, Jori Ferran, Martínez-López Beatriz
Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California Davis, Davis, USA.
Departamento de Patoloxía Animal, Facultade de Veterinaria Lugo, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Lugo, Spain.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2023 Feb 28;2023:7976252. doi: 10.1155/2023/7976252. eCollection 2023.
Bushpigs () play a major role in the socio-ecosystem of Madagascar, particularly in rural areas. They are largely hunted by rural populations as a major source of income and protein. They can also represent a potential source of pathogens for domestic animals and people. For example, it is hypothesized that bushpigs might compromise African swine fever (ASF) eradication programs by sporadically transmitting the virus to domestic pigs. However, available knowledge on the distribution of bushpigs in Madagascar is limited. In this study, we estimated the distribution of bushpigs on Madagascar using a species distribution model (SDM). We retrieved 206 sightings of bushpigs in Madagascar during 1990-2016 and predicted the distribution by using 37 climatic, geographic, and agricultural/human variables related to the presence of bushpigs and running a presence-background maximum entropy SDM. Our model identified three main areas with a high suitability for bushpigs: in the north, central-western, and east of the island (AUC = 0.84). The main contributors to the model were the vegetation index (51.3%), percentage of land covered by trees (17.6%), and annual averaged monthly precipitation (12.6%). In addition, we identified areas in central Madagascar with a high density of domestic pigs and a high suitability score for bushpigs. These results may help to identify bushpig areas at the interface with domestic pigs to assess the risk of pathogen transmission and to design ecological assessments, wildlife management studies, or targeted surveillance and research studies related to many bushpig-borne pathogens, such as ASF, which is an endemic problem in the country, as well as zoonotic diseases such as cysticercosis and hepatitis E. Our approach could also be extrapolated to other species of wild swine in other countries.
非洲野猪（）在马达加斯加的社会生态系统中扮演着重要角色，尤其是在农村地区。它们主要被农村人口猎杀，作为主要的收入和蛋白质来源。它们也可能是家畜和人类病原体的潜在来源。例如，据推测，非洲野猪可能会偶尔将病毒传播给家猪，从而影响非洲猪瘟（ASF）的根除计划。然而，关于马达加斯加非洲野猪分布的现有知识有限。在本研究中，我们使用物种分布模型（SDM）估计了马达加斯加非洲野猪的分布。我们检索了1990年至2016年期间在马达加斯加的206次非洲野猪目击记录，并通过使用与非洲野猪存在相关的37个气候、地理和农业/人类变量，并运行存在-背景最大熵SDM来预测其分布。我们的模型确定了三个对非洲野猪高度适宜的主要区域：在该岛的北部、中西部和东部（AUC = 0.84）。该模型的主要贡献因素是植被指数（51.3%）、树木覆盖土地的百分比（17.6%）和年平均月降水量（12.6%）。此外，我们在马达加斯加中部发现了家猪密度高且非洲野猪适宜性得分高的区域。这些结果可能有助于确定与家猪交界的非洲野猪区域，以评估病原体传播的风险，并设计生态评估、野生动物管理研究或与许多由非洲野猪传播的病原体相关的有针对性的监测和研究，如ASF，这是该国的一个地方病问题，以及人畜共患疾病，如囊尾蚴病和戊型肝炎。我们的方法也可以推广到其他国家的其他野生猪种。
