Arai Takahiro
School of Management and Information Sciences, Tama University, Tokyo, Japan.
Graduate School of Health Management, Keio University, Kanagawa, Japan.
Crisis. 2025 Jul;46(4):218-224. doi: 10.1027/0227-5910/a001003. Epub 2025 Apr 30.
: The impact of earthquakes on mental health is profound. : This study examines the short-term impact of the Noto Peninsula earthquake (magnitude 7.6) in Japan in January 2024 on the number of suicides and investigates the existence of the or in suicide trends. : Suicide data from disaster-affected areas in Ishikawa Prefecture from January 2017 to June 2024 were analyzed using Poisson regression and prophet models. : Both models identified fewer suicides than predicted for 3 consecutive months (March-May 2024). This trend was observed even when the affected areas were subdivided into multiple regions. : Economic factors and data on suicide attempts or mental disorders were not included in the analysis. : This study provides evidence supporting the pulling together effect or honeymoon phase, suggesting that increased community support following a disaster temporarily reduces suicide risk.
地震对心理健康的影响是深远的。本研究考察了2024年1月日本能登半岛地震（7.6级）对自杀人数的短期影响，并调查自杀趋势中是否存在“抱团效应”或“蜜月期”。使用泊松回归和先知模型分析了石川县受灾地区2017年1月至2024年6月的自杀数据。两个模型均发现，连续3个月（2024年3月至5月）的自杀人数少于预测值。即使将受灾地区细分为多个区域，这一趋势依然存在。分析中未纳入经济因素以及自杀未遂或精神障碍的数据。本研究提供了支持“抱团效应”或“蜜月期”的证据，表明灾难后社区支持的增加会暂时降低自杀风险。
