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利用时间序列分析对2024年日本能登半岛地震后的自杀情况进行短期初步评估

Short-Term Preliminary Evaluation of Suicide Following the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake in Japan Using Time Series Analysis.

作者信息

Arai Takahiro

机构信息

School of Management and Information Sciences, Tama University, Tokyo, Japan.

Graduate School of Health Management, Keio University, Kanagawa, Japan.

出版信息

Crisis. 2025 Jul;46(4):218-224. doi: 10.1027/0227-5910/a001003. Epub 2025 Apr 30.

Abstract

: The impact of earthquakes on mental health is profound. : This study examines the short-term impact of the Noto Peninsula earthquake (magnitude 7.6) in Japan in January 2024 on the number of suicides and investigates the existence of the or in suicide trends. : Suicide data from disaster-affected areas in Ishikawa Prefecture from January 2017 to June 2024 were analyzed using Poisson regression and prophet models. : Both models identified fewer suicides than predicted for 3 consecutive months (March-May 2024). This trend was observed even when the affected areas were subdivided into multiple regions. : Economic factors and data on suicide attempts or mental disorders were not included in the analysis. : This study provides evidence supporting the pulling together effect or honeymoon phase, suggesting that increased community support following a disaster temporarily reduces suicide risk.

摘要

地震对心理健康的影响是深远的。本研究考察了2024年1月日本能登半岛地震(7.6级)对自杀人数的短期影响,并调查自杀趋势中是否存在“抱团效应”或“蜜月期”。使用泊松回归和先知模型分析了石川县受灾地区2017年1月至2024年6月的自杀数据。两个模型均发现,连续3个月(2024年3月至5月)的自杀人数少于预测值。即使将受灾地区细分为多个区域,这一趋势依然存在。分析中未纳入经济因素以及自杀未遂或精神障碍的数据。本研究提供了支持“抱团效应”或“蜜月期”的证据,表明灾难后社区支持的增加会暂时降低自杀风险。

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