Krawczyk Paweł, Kupczak Anna, Pergoł Joanna, Hejnosz Aleksandra Julia
Division of Physical Education and Sport, Medical University of Warsaw, Trojdena 2c Street, 02-109, Warsaw, Poland.
Faculty of Medicine, Medical University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland.
Sci Rep. 2025 May 3;15(1):15505. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-00699-8.
The aim of this study is determine whether there are differences in performance analysis in matches won and lost at the 2022 European Women's Handball Championship, and which actions are predictors of goal difference and match outcome. The analysis included 44 matches. The Student's t-test and the Mann-Whitney U test was used to examine differences between winning and losing matches. Multivariate regression and logistic regression analysis was used to determine predictors of goal differences, and match outcome. Winning teams perform fewer positional attacks (d = 0.51) and more fast breaks (η = 0.01). Winning teams score significant higher number of goals in attack (d = 1.43), positional attack (d = 1.11), and have a higher efficiency of attack (d = 1.71) and positional attack (η = 0.39) throwing. Goalkeepers in winning matches make a significant higher number of defenses (d = 0.79) and have higher overall efficiency (d = 1.27). Predictors of goal differential (increasing it) in matches is efficiency of positional attack (β = 0.61), fast break (β = 0.28), and goalkeeper defenses (β = 0.46). The effectiveness of the attack (OR = 1.55) and goalkeeper's defenses (OR = 1.24) increase the probability of winning the match, while the number of shots from 9 m (OR = 0.80) decreases it. Specialized handball training should be optimized to increase the number and effectiveness of team and individual actions, which differentiate the outcome of the match.
本研究的目的是确定在2022年欧洲女子手球锦标赛中，胜负场次的表现分析是否存在差异，以及哪些行为是净胜球和比赛结果的预测因素。该分析涵盖了44场比赛。采用学生t检验和曼-惠特尼U检验来考察胜负场次之间的差异。使用多元回归和逻辑回归分析来确定净胜球和比赛结果的预测因素。获胜球队的阵地进攻次数较少（d = 0.51），快攻次数较多（η = 0.01）。获胜球队在进攻（d = 1.43）、阵地进攻（d = 1.11）中的进球数显著更多，进攻（d = 1.71）和阵地进攻（η = 0.39）投篮的效率更高。获胜场次中的守门员做出的防守次数显著更多（d = 0.79），整体效率更高（d = 1.27）。比赛中净胜球（增加净胜球）的预测因素是阵地进攻效率（β = 0.61）、快攻（β = 0.28）和守门员防守（β = 0.46）。进攻的有效性（OR = 1.55）和守门员的防守（OR = 1.24）增加了赢得比赛的概率，而9米处投篮次数（OR = 0.80）则降低了这一概率。应优化专门的手球训练，以增加团队和个人行为的数量和有效性，这些行为会使比赛结果产生差异。
