Nemnem Ayman Mokhtar, Tanim Ahad Hasan, Nahian Audrika, Khan Sadik, Goharian Erfan, Imran Jasim
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA.
Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN, USA.
Nat Commun. 2025 May 6;16(1):4191. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59261-9.
On September 11, 2023, Storm Daniel unleashed unprecedented rainfall over the Wadi Derna watershed, triggering one of the most devastating floods in modern history, striking Derna, a coastal city in Libya. This study reconstructs the disaster using an integrated modeling approach that combines satellite imagery, hydrologic, hydraulic, and geotechnical simulations, machine learning, eyewitness accounts, and digital elevation data to assess the impact of cascading dam failures. Our findings reveal that the region's dams, even if structurally sound, would have provided minimal protection against the extreme runoff. However, their failure unleashed a destructive surge wave, amplifying the disaster's magnitude and devastation. Here, we show that the collapse of aging flood control infrastructures, compounded by inadequate risk assessment and emergency preparedness, dramatically escalated the disaster's impact. Our findings underscore the urgent need for systematic dam safety evaluations, enhanced flood forecasting, and adaptive risk management strategies that address climate extremes and infrastructure vulnerabilities.
2023年9月11日，风暴丹尼尔在瓦迪代尔纳流域引发了前所未有的降雨，引发了现代历史上最具破坏性的洪水之一，袭击了利比亚的沿海城市代尔纳。本研究采用综合建模方法重建这场灾难，该方法结合了卫星图像、水文、水力和岩土工程模拟、机器学习、目击者描述以及数字高程数据，以评估级联大坝溃坝的影响。我们的研究结果表明，该地区的大坝即使结构完好，对极端径流的防护作用也微乎其微。然而，它们的溃坝引发了具有破坏性的涌浪，加剧了灾难的规模和破坏程度。在此，我们表明，老化的防洪基础设施的坍塌，再加上风险评估不足和应急准备不足，极大地加剧了灾难的影响。我们的研究结果强调了迫切需要进行系统的大坝安全评估、加强洪水预报以及制定应对极端气候和基础设施脆弱性的适应性风险管理策略。
