Liu Siyu, Geng Daoying
Radiology Department, Huashan Hospital, Affiliated with Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Intelligent Imaging for Critical Brain Diseases, Shanghai, China.
PLoS One. 2025 May 7;20(5):e0322574. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0322574. eCollection 2025.
This study aims to provide improvement directions for aging societies by analyzing the disease burden, risk factors and trend forecasts of AD and other dementias (ADD) in China and globally from 1990 to 2021.
Data sourced from Global Burden of Disease 2021. We extracted indicators of disease burden and risk factors for ADD in people aged 40 years and older, including incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years, years lived with disability and years of life lost. The annual percent change and average annual percent change over the past 32 years were analyzed by Joinpoint regression. Decomposition analysis was used to clarify the contribution of aging, population and epidemiological change. The directions of deaths and incidence in China and globally were predicted using ARIMA model for the next 15 years.
The disease burden of ADD in China is heavier than in most countries and regions. By 2021, China's disease burden has increased by three times, while the global disease burden has doubled. Females bear more burden but face lower mortality. Population growth is the main reason for the burden. Smoking, high fasting plasma glucose and high body-mass index are the three major risk factors, among which high fasting plasma glucose occupies a dominant position.
The disease burden of ADD in China and globally is increasing daily and will remain high in the future. It is urgent to introduce some effective intervention measures to prevent such diseases as early as possible.
本研究旨在通过分析1990年至2021年中国及全球范围内阿尔茨海默病（AD）和其他痴呆症（ADD）的疾病负担、风险因素及趋势预测，为老龄化社会提供改进方向。
数据来源于《2021年全球疾病负担》。我们提取了40岁及以上人群ADD的疾病负担和风险因素指标，包括发病率、患病率、死亡人数、伤残调整生命年、带病生存年数和寿命损失年数。通过Joinpoint回归分析过去32年的年度变化百分比和平均年度变化百分比。采用分解分析来阐明老龄化、人口和流行病学变化的贡献。使用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测中国和全球未来15年的死亡人数和发病率趋势。
中国ADD的疾病负担比大多数国家和地区更重。到2021年，中国的疾病负担增加了两倍，而全球疾病负担增加了一倍。女性承担的负担更多，但死亡率较低。人口增长是负担加重的主要原因。吸烟、空腹血糖高和体重指数高是三大风险因素，其中空腹血糖高占主导地位。
中国和全球ADD的疾病负担日益加重，且未来仍将居高不下。迫切需要尽早引入一些有效的干预措施来预防此类疾病。
