Hu Jie, Horton Benjamin P, Yeo Tsin Wen, Sung Joseph J Y, Steve Yim Hung Lam
Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Health, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
BMJ Glob Health. 2025 May 6;10(5):e014688. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014688.
Dengue presents a significant global health challenge, affecting 50-100 symptomatic infections every year and placing immense strain on healthcare systems in tropical and subtropical regions. However, future projections of dengue infections in a warming world remain unclear. We used the support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN) models with mosquitoes and dengue records from 1960 to 2019 to comprehensively assess the effects of climate change and socioeconomic conditions on the distribution of mosquitoes and the global dengue incidence rate. The SVM and ANN models were applied to project the global future incidence rate and infections during 2021-2040, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 under various climate change and socioeconomic conditions in a 5 km spatial resolution. We found a geographical distribution expansion of mosquitoes and dengue in future years, especially in higher latitudes such as North America and Europe. It was estimated that 77 (confidence interval: 40 to 198) million yearly global infections will occur during 2041-2060 under the Shared Socio-economic Pathway SSP2-4.5, a 57% increase of 49 (26-127) million compared with 2000-2019. The rise in annual infections is primarily attributed to the growing incidence rates driven by rising temperatures and the enhanced suitability of , and an expanding human population. Our high-resolution projection provides support to local control measures to minimise health impacts from dengue. Specifically, the mosquito control programmes such as eliminating the breeding sites are recommended in Africa and South Asia, where dengue is particularly severe in all climate change and socioeconomic conditions.
登革热是一项重大的全球健康挑战，每年造成5000万至1亿例有症状感染，给热带和亚热带地区的医疗系统带来巨大压力。然而，在全球变暖的情况下，未来登革热感染的预测仍不明确。我们使用支持向量机（SVM）和人工神经网络（ANN）模型，结合1960年至2019年的蚊子和登革热记录，全面评估气候变化和社会经济状况对蚊子分布和全球登革热发病率的影响。SVM和ANN模型被用于预测在5公里空间分辨率下，各种气候变化和社会经济条件下2021年至2040年、2041年至2060年和2061年至2080年的全球未来发病率和感染情况。我们发现，未来几年蚊子和登革热的地理分布将扩大，尤其是在北美和欧洲等高纬度地区。据估计，在共享社会经济路径SSP2-4.5情景下，2041年至2060年全球每年将发生7700万（置信区间：4000万至1.98亿）例感染，与2000年至2019年相比增加了57%，即从4900万（2600万至1.27亿）例增加到7700万例。年感染率上升主要归因于气温上升导致发病率增加、蚊子适宜生存环境增强以及人口增长。我们的高分辨率预测为地方控制措施提供了支持，以尽量减少登革热对健康的影响。具体而言，建议在非洲和南亚实施蚊虫控制计划，如消除蚊子繁殖地，因为在所有气候变化和社会经济条件下，这些地区的登革热疫情都尤为严重。
