Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Departamento de Biología Animal, Universidad de Málaga, Facultad de Ciencias, Malaga, Spain.
Medical Research Council Unit the Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia.
Pathog Glob Health. 2024 Jul;118(5):397-407. doi: 10.1080/20477724.2024.2369377. Epub 2024 Jul 7.
Climate change may increase the risk of dengue and yellow fever transmission by urban and sylvatic mosquito vectors. Previous research primarily focused on and . However, dengue and yellow fever have a complex transmission cycle involving sylvatic vectors. Our aim was to analyze how the distribution of areas favorable to both urban and sylvatic vectors could be modified as a consequence of climate change. We projected, to future scenarios, baseline distribution models already published for these vectors based on the favorability function, and mapped the areas where mosquitoes' favorability could increase, decrease or remain stable in the near (2041-2060) and distant (2061-2080) future. Favorable areas for the presence of dengue and yellow fever vectors show little differences in the future compared to the baseline models, with changes being perceptible only at regional scales. The model projections predict dengue vectors expanding in West and Central Africa and in South-East Asia, reaching Borneo. Yellow fever vectors could spread in West and Central Africa and in the Amazon. In some locations of Europe, the models suggest a reestablishment of , while will continue to find new favorable areas. The results underline the need to focus more on vectors , and in West and Central sub-Saharan Africa, especially Cameroon, Central Africa Republic, and northern Democratic Republic of Congo; and underscore the importance of enhancing entomological monitoring in areas where populations of often overlooked vectors may thrive as a result of climate changes.
气候变化可能会增加城市和丛林蚊子媒介传播登革热和黄热病的风险。以前的研究主要集中在 和 上。然而，登革热和黄热病的传播周期复杂，涉及丛林媒介。我们的目的是分析由于气候变化，有利于城市和丛林媒介的区域分布如何发生变化。我们根据有利性功能，对这些媒介已经发表的基线分布模型进行了预测，以未来情景为基础，并绘制了在近期（2041-2060 年）和远期（2061-2080 年）蚊子的有利性可能增加、减少或保持稳定的区域。与基线模型相比，未来登革热和黄热病媒介存在的有利区域几乎没有差异，只有在区域尺度上才能察觉到变化。模型预测表明，登革热媒介将在西非和中非以及东南亚扩展，到达婆罗洲。黄热病媒介可能会在西非和中非以及亚马逊地区传播。在欧洲的一些地区，模型表明重新建立了 ，而 将继续找到新的有利区域。结果强调需要更加关注西非和中非撒哈拉以南地区（特别是喀麦隆、中非共和国和刚果民主共和国北部）的媒介、 和 ；并强调加强在由于气候变化可能导致通常被忽视的媒介大量繁殖的地区进行昆虫学监测的重要性。
