Woolway R Iestyn, Kayastha Miraj B, Tong Yan, Feng Lian, Shi Haoran, Xue Pengfei
School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, UK.
Great Lakes Research Center, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI USA.
Nat Clim Chang. 2025;15(5):554-559. doi: 10.1038/s41558-025-02314-0. Epub 2025 Apr 10.
Lake heatwaves (extreme hot water events) can substantially disrupt aquatic ecosystems. Although surface heatwaves are well studied, their vertical structures within lakes remain largely unexplored. Here we analyse the characteristics of subsurface lake heatwaves (extreme hot events occurring below the surface) using a spatiotemporal modelling framework. Our findings reveal that subsurface heatwaves are frequent, often longer lasting but less intense than surface events. Deep-water heatwaves (bottom heatwaves) have increased in frequency (7.2 days decade), duration (2.1 days decade) and intensity (0.2 °C days decade) over the past 40 years. Moreover, vertically compounding heatwaves, where extreme heat occurs simultaneously at the surface and bottom, have risen by 3.3 days decade. By the end of the century, changes in heatwave patterns, particularly under high emissions, are projected to intensify. These findings highlight the need for subsurface monitoring to fully understand and predict the ecological impacts of lake heatwaves.
湖泊热浪（极端热水事件）会严重破坏水生生态系统。尽管对表层热浪已有充分研究，但湖泊内部的垂直结构在很大程度上仍未得到探索。在此，我们使用时空建模框架分析了湖泊次表层热浪（发生在表层以下的极端高温事件）的特征。我们的研究结果表明，次表层热浪频繁发生，通常持续时间更长，但强度低于表层事件。在过去40年里，深水热浪（底部热浪）的频率（每十年增加7.2天）、持续时间（每十年增加2.1天）和强度（每十年增加0.2℃·天）都有所增加。此外，垂直叠加的热浪，即表层和底部同时出现极端高温的情况，每十年增加了3.3天。到本世纪末，预计热浪模式的变化，尤其是在高排放情况下，将加剧。这些发现凸显了进行次表层监测以全面了解和预测湖泊热浪对生态影响的必要性。
