The macroeconomic burden of hepatitis C and the economic benefit of accelerated investments in China.

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) poses a significant health and economic burden worldwide, with China bearing a considerable portion of this burden. Chinese treatment coverage remains low, and the full economic implications of achieving these goals are not well understood.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to evaluate the macroeconomic burden of HCV from 2023 to 2050, as well as the investments required, health benefits, cost-effectiveness, net economic benefit, and the impact on economic growth associated with achieving WHO hepatitis C intervention coverage targets more rapidly during this period.

METHODS

A dynamic compartmental model was used to simulate the transmission, progression, and cascade of care for HCV patients in China. Intervention costs and healthcare costs were calculated using the cost-of-illness (COI) method. A health-augmented macroeconomic model projected macroeconomic outcomes. Scenarios were developed to evaluate different time points for achieving coverage targets.

RESULTS

The projected macroeconomic burden of HCV from 2023 to 2050 is $1.17 trillion. Achieving WHO targets by 2030 is expected to spend $69.72 (95% UI $66.22-$73.68) billion but will avert 0.66(95% UI 0.58-0.74) million hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases, and 1.10(95% UI 1.03-1.18) million HCV-related deaths compared to status quo. Faster achievement of coverage targets is associated with investments becoming cost-effective sooner and facilitating greater economic growth.

CONCLUSION

Achieving the WHO Global Health Sector Strategy diagnosis and treatment coverage targets by 2030 in China is projected to be cost-effective and result in significant health and economic benefits. The findings underscore the importance of increased investment in hepatitis C elimination efforts in China.