Lankamo Abera Argo, R Dayanandan, Bati Bantyergu Engida, Dira Samuel Jilo
College of Business and Economics, Hawassa University, Hawassa, Sidaama, Ethiopia.
College of Social Science and Humanities, Hawassa University, Hawassa, Sidaama, Ethiopia.
PLoS One. 2025 May 14;20(5):e0323469. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0323469. eCollection 2025.
Smallholder farmers' vulnerability to climate change varies due to socio-economic and biophysical factors, requiring a context-specific assessment. This study examines livelihood vulnerability in the face of climate change in the Sidaama Region, Ethiopia. A mixed-methods approach with a descriptive and explanatory sequential design was employed. Data from 391 systematically sampled households were analyzed using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework (LVI_IPCC), alongside Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's tests. Results of LVI analysis indicate that the Lowland agroecological zone (AEZ) is the most vulnerable (0.466), followed by the Highland (0.412), while the Midland is least vulnerable (0.376). The Highland AEZ showed greater sensitivity to climate change, whereas the Lowland had the weakest adaptive capacity. The Kruskal-Wallis H test confirmed significant differences in vulnerability across AEZs (H = 49.083, p < 0.001), with Dunn's test revealing that the Lowland AEZ is significantly more vulnerable than both the Highland and Midland. LVI_IPCC results similarly ranked the Lowland as the most vulnerable (-0.0041), followed by the Midland (-0.072), with the Highland being the least vulnerable (-0.096). Boxplot analysis further confirmed that the lowland had the highest median LVI_IPCC, indicating greater livelihood vulnerability, while the Highland and Midland had lower median values. To reduce vulnerability, targeted interventions such as climate-smart agriculture, diversified income sources, improved microfinance access, and tailored climate adaptation strategies are needed. Local, regional, and national governments should prioritize disaster prevention and mitigation in the Lowland while leveraging the Midland's higher adaptability for piloting innovative adaptation strategies.
由于社会经济和生物物理因素的影响，小农户对气候变化的脆弱性各不相同，因此需要进行因地制宜的评估。本研究考察了埃塞俄比亚锡达马地区面对气候变化时的生计脆弱性。采用了具有描述性和解释性序列设计的混合方法。使用生计脆弱性指数（LVI）和政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）框架（LVI_IPCC），并结合Kruskal-Wallis检验和邓恩检验，对391户系统抽样家庭的数据进行了分析。LVI分析结果表明，低地农业生态区（AEZ）最为脆弱（0.466），其次是高地（0.412），而中部地区最不脆弱（0.376）。高地农业生态区对气候变化表现出更高的敏感性，而低地的适应能力最弱。Kruskal-Wallis H检验证实了各农业生态区在脆弱性方面存在显著差异（H = 49.083，p < 0.001），邓恩检验表明，低地农业生态区比高地和中部地区都明显更脆弱。LVI_IPCC的结果同样将低地列为最脆弱地区（-0.0041），其次是中部地区（-0.072），高地最不脆弱（-0.096）。箱线图分析进一步证实，低地的LVI_IPCC中位数最高，表明生计脆弱性更大，而高地和中部地区的中位数较低。为了降低脆弱性，需要采取针对性的干预措施，如气候智能型农业、多元化收入来源、改善小额融资渠道以及量身定制的气候适应策略。地方、区域和国家政府应将低地的防灾减灾作为优先事项，同时利用中部地区较高的适应能力来试点创新的适应策略。
