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[基于最大熵模型预测气候变化对[物种名称]栖息地分布的影响] 需注意,原文中“based on the MaxEnt model”前面缺少具体所针对的物种等关键信息,我这里添加了“[物种名称]”以便让译文逻辑更完整,你可根据实际情况进行调整。

[Predicting the impact of climate change on the habitat distribution of based on the MaxEnt model].

作者信息

Luo Cai-Hong, Wang Wan-Yu, Huang Jin-Xia, Wang Peng, Ma Mao-Hua, Chen Ji-Long, Zhao Cun-Feng

机构信息

1 Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China.

2 Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing 400714, China.

出版信息

Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2025 Apr;36(4):1251-1260. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202504.032.

Abstract

Under the context of global climate change, the shifts in suitable habitats of different species have become one of the major threats to biodiversity. We simulated the distribution habitats of under current climatic condition and predicted potential changes under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) with the MaxEnt model based on the distribution records of and environmental variables. The results showed that: 1) Elevation, annual temperature range, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of potential breeding habitats for , while the wintering habitats were significantly influenced by factors such as isothermality, elevation, and temperature annual range. 2) Under the current climate condition, the breeding habitats of were mainly distributed in Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, Tibet, Sichuan of China, as well as India, with a highly suitable breeding area of 27.07×10 km. The wintering grounds were primarily located in Tibet, Sichuan, Yunnan of China, as well as Bhutan, Nepal, India, and Myanmar, with a highly suitable wintering area of 21.15×10 km. 3) Under future climate scenarios, the overall potential suitable habitats for remained stable, with the retention rate of stable areas exceeding 80%. Among these, the breeding habitats showed an increasing trend, while the wintering habitats exhibited a decreasing trend. 4) Under different climate scenarios, the centroid of breeding ground of would gene-rally move southeastward, while the centroid of wintering ground mainly moved westward, potentially reducing migration distance. By predicting the changes in the potential suitable habitat for on a large regional scale under future climate scenarios and revealing the impact of climate change on their distribution, this study could provide a scientific basis for the conservation of and the formulation of relevant strategies.

摘要

在全球气候变化背景下,不同物种适宜栖息地的变化已成为生物多样性面临的主要威胁之一。我们基于[物种名称]的分布记录和环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型模拟了当前气候条件下[物种名称]的分布栖息地,并预测了三种气候情景(SSP126、SSP245和SSP585)下的潜在变化。结果表明:1)海拔、年温度范围和最湿润季度的平均温度是影响[物种名称]潜在繁殖栖息地分布的主要环境因素,而越冬栖息地则受等温性、海拔和温度年较差等因素的显著影响。2)在当前气候条件下,[物种名称]的繁殖栖息地主要分布在中国的新疆、甘肃、青海、西藏、四川以及印度,高度适宜繁殖面积为27.07×10平方千米。越冬地主要位于中国的西藏、四川、云南以及不丹、尼泊尔、印度和缅甸,高度适宜越冬面积为21.15×10平方千米。3)在未来气候情景下,[物种名称]的总体潜在适宜栖息地保持稳定,稳定区域保留率超过80%。其中,繁殖栖息地呈增加趋势,而越冬栖息地呈减少趋势。4)在不同气候情景下,[物种名称]繁殖地的重心总体向东南方向移动,而越冬地的重心主要向西移动,潜在地缩短了迁徙距离。本研究通过预测未来气候情景下大区域尺度上[物种名称]潜在适宜栖息地的变化,揭示气候变化对其分布的影响,可为[物种名称]的保护及相关策略的制定提供科学依据。

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