Jiang Zeng, Shao Mingqin, Wang Jianying
College of Life Science, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China.
Animals (Basel). 2024 Dec 24;15(1):6. doi: 10.3390/ani15010006.
In the context of global warming and intensified human activities, the loss and fragmentation of species habitats have been exacerbated. In order to clarify the trends in the current and future suitable wintering areas for hooded cranes (), the MaxEnt model was applied to predict the distribution patterns and trends of hooded cranes based on 94 occurrence records and 23 environmental variables during the wintering periods from 2015 to 2024. The results indicated the following. (1) The elevation (Elev, 43.7%), distance to major water (DW, 39.5%), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6, 9.7%), and precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13, 2.6%) were dominant factors influencing the wintering distribution of hooded cranes. (2) Under current climate and land use scenarios, highly suitable areas for hooded cranes in China cover approximately 1.274 × 10 km, primarily located in inland lakes such as Dongting Lake, Liangzi Lake, Poyang Lake, Shengjin Lake, and Caizi Lake in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, as well as in coastal wetlands such as Chongming East Beach, Shandong Peninsula, Bohai Bay, and Liaodong Peninsula. (3) Under future climate and land use scenarios, the suitable habitat areas (high and moderate suitability) for hooded cranes are projected to contract substantially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and expand slightly in the areas of Shandong Peninsula, Bohai Bay, and Liaodong Peninsula. Under the SSP126 (low emissions), SSP245 (medium emissions), and SSP585 (high emissions) scenarios, the average area reduction percentages were 29.1%, 28.8%, and 31.6%, respectively. (4) The increases in Bio6 and water areas in northern China were the main reasons for the shift of the wintering distribution centroid for hooded cranes toward northeastern China. The minor expansion of suitable habitat in the north covers mainly cultivated land, and this singular foraging habitat could intensify both intraspecific and interspecific competition among waterbirds, thus exacerbating the survival risks for hooded cranes. To more effectively protect the wintering population of hooded cranes in China, the restoration of natural habitats and population monitoring in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River should be strengthened. Additionally, nature reserves or protected areas should be established in the northern expansion regions.
在全球气候变暖和人类活动加剧的背景下，物种栖息地的丧失和破碎化日益严重。为了厘清目前及未来白头鹤适宜越冬地的变化趋势，基于2015年至2024年越冬期的94条出现记录和23个环境变量，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）预测白头鹤的分布格局和趋势。结果如下：（1）海拔（Elev，贡献率43.7%）、距主要水体距离（DW，贡献率39.5%）、最冷月最低温度（Bio6，贡献率9.7%）和最湿月降水量（Bio13，贡献率2.6%）是影响白头鹤越冬分布的主要因素。（2）在当前气候和土地利用情景下，中国白头鹤的高度适宜区面积约为1.274×10平方千米，主要位于长江中下游的洞庭湖、梁子湖、鄱阳湖、升金湖和菜子湖等内陆湖泊，以及崇明东滩、山东半岛、渤海湾和辽东半岛等沿海湿地。（3）在未来气候和土地利用情景下，白头鹤适宜栖息地面积（高适宜和中等适宜）在长江中下游地区预计将大幅收缩，在山东半岛、渤海湾和辽东半岛地区将略有扩张。在SSP126（低排放）、SSP245（中等排放）和SSP585（高排放）情景下，适宜栖息地面积平均减少百分比分别为29.1%、28.8%和31.6%。（4）中国北方Bio6和水域面积的增加是白头鹤越冬分布重心向东北方向转移的主要原因。北方适宜栖息地的小幅扩张主要覆盖耕地，这种单一的觅食栖息地可能加剧水鸟种内和种间竞争，从而增加白头鹤的生存风险。为更有效地保护中国白头鹤越冬种群，应加强长江中下游自然栖息地的恢复和种群监测。此外，应在北方扩张区域建立自然保护区。
